What are the chances of an atheist winning a major election with a plank in the platform being the further separation of church and state.. no funding of separate school boards, cancel church tax breaks, etc.?
Depends on the election and region and timing. In the US Presidential election Trump was a joke and huge underdog, but Clinton ran one of the worst campaigns in history and the Russian interference edged her out. He would have lost 99% of the races he ever would have been in.
For any success with this at all you would drop the word "atheist" in favor of agnostic.
I think "Humanist" would be more palatable to most people.