Many people believe that technological advancement is a given. We if we are wise enough, focused enough, and persistent enough as a society, there will always be better, more-advanced technologies available to make our lives better and more economically productive. Humanity will thus one day exploit the natural resources from other planets, will cure most if not all diseases, and the world economy can expand indefinitely despite minor short-term setbacks. This belief is equivalent to a belief in a progress fairy. It is at odds with the basic laws of physics and defies rational logic as much as the belief in a personal god does. Humans have not been given any special status by the universe or by any god. We are not an entitled species, whose continued existence is guaranteed by our technological or mental prowess. Humans will one day go extinct even though life will continue on the planet.
Moreover, the immediate and long-term future does not look promising for humanity with numerous fundamental indicators all being negative. The vast majority of scientists have concluded that Earth is currently in its sixth mass extinction, which typically takes 50 to 200 years to unfold and results in the loss of 60-97% of all living species. Recent studies (e.g. Ceballos, Ehrlich, & Dirzo 2017 Publications of National Academy of Sciences, [pnas.org] ) indicate species loss is happening much faster than predicted. Complicating matters is global warming, which is making the Earth less habitable.
Overpopulation, overconsumption, and the depletion of inexpensive natural resources is going to cause the worldwide industrialized economies to collapse in the near term (10-35 years), causing a return to a new dark ages with severe losses in technology, modern life styles, and food production. Refugees will number in the billions and there will be at least a 4-fold decline in the world human population over the 21st century and another 3-fold decline in the 22nd. There are no technological fixes that can prevent this outcome – not even a heroic conversion to 100% renewable energy sources. There is no progress fairy.
This argument has been put forth ever since civilization first rose on the plains of Africa. There have always been naysayers who predicted collapse, famine, shortages of various commodities, and, of course, the biblical Apocolypse, which is predicted in every generation.
As to the veracity of the book that AstroChuck keeps beating like a drum, that book was written in 1990! Not to be snide, but was the iPhone even on the market then? I haven't Googled that, but I know, from personal experience, that brick-and-mortar stores were virtually the exclusive domain of retail commerce. Today, they are barely hanging on.
I mention those two specific examples because a different author, Ray Kurzweil, is positing a coming technological "singularity" that will radically transform humanity, and what it even means to BE human. And while I don't even have a college degree (I couldn't afford to finish at UCLA, and am purely an autodidact), Kurzweil works for Google and has dozens of awards, including 12 honorary doctorates. Most impressively, I think, is that he’s made several predictions about the future of technology and over 85% of them have turned out to be correct. Basically, he says the singularity will accelerate human knowedge growth so fast beyond anything imaginable. And while that growth isn't predictable, it's sure to bring answers to both population growth AND efficient space flight, which is the next phase of humanity's journey.
The wonderful thing about America is we all have the right to approach life however we choose. I, and many like me, believe that we are not only well capable of deriving an answer to our problems, but discovering new and brighter ways to expand into the cosmos. Others choose to believe that all calculations lead to failure. Psychologists say that no matter which way you believe, that you can succeed or fail, you are "correct". If that is true, I choose to believe the answers are discoverable.
Here are several articles concerning "The Coming Singularity", and what it might mean for our future.
@TheAstroChuck, you are not even taking into account natural disasters (massive volcanic eruptions, asteroids) or just as possibly human disasters (nuclear war, water contamination) which could precipitate a massive change in survival of many species, including human. Already our ventures into space are being threatened by military takeover. Russia is escalating their military research into areas not even heard of (The supposed tsunami bomb) that could wipe out vast areas of habitable land. Many countries, primarily in Africa at the moment, are growing populations far faster than a diminishing supply of water and food can support. Those countries least able to support population growth are those least likely to regulate births. The massive migrations will force developed countries to absorb or reject millions of those looking to escape, causing what we currently see in Europe, countries turning to Right Wing leaders to stop that flow. Will we as a species all disappear like the dinosaur? Not likely, as even certain species continued to evolve even under the circumstances that killed off the largest creatures. But our societies will probably devolve to a system not much resembling our current one. As you state, every civilization of humans has at some point been destroyed and been forced to start again. The US society is only slightly older than 250 years. In the history of mankind and the Universe, a drop in the bucket.
@Barnie2years, @TheAstroChuck All of what you say is "true", as far as it goes, but you aren't taking some very important things into account.
In the first place, never, in the history of humankind, have we ever had access to as much information at our fingertips as we have now, nor have we EVER had the ability to blend, seive, and derive said information in ways that can originate new information that would never have been discovered otherwise.
Second is the fact that there are resources all over the globe that we don't even know about, because we've explored less than 35% of the surface of our home! The ocean is 90 to 95% unexplored, not to mention Antarctica. In fact, last year, there were 6 new islands discovered that had never been seen before, one of which has 14 of the Amazon's uncontacted tribes! So it is NOT a case of lack of resources. It is simply a case of political conflict, and the dispersal of those resources.
Now, it is also a case of technological ability, as well. Look at fracking. Whatever your thoughts on the viability of fracking as a ecological concern, the fact is it delivered oil from areas that had been thought to be empty of obtainable oil. Which is what is keeping the cost down in the market right now. Another example of tech delivering what no one thought possible.
As far as population growth goes, I have some cold, hard words for that, which will make me seem like a horrible person: They will keep dying until they figure out they need to stop breeding. It's always true that education leads to lower birth-rates. The only hope for Africa is to increase the nuber of schools, and educate their way out of their cycle of hunger-crisis-die-off. And education will also do much to stop the intercine tribal-religious warfare which has been the curse of Africa since the dawn of man. After all, it's not called "the Dark Continent" because of the pigment of its inhabitents!
Barnie mentioned natural disasters or wars. The first is unplanable. Oh, one can make very general plans for a generic "disturbance", but as Hurricane Katrina showed, those plans often are insifficient for the incident planned for, and wholly inadequate for the disaster that actually occurs. Best case is, genuine leaders are in place, and things get sorted out. Worst case, no one knows what they're doing, and it takes years to fix things.
War, though, that's a whole different creature. "Si vis pacem, para bellum". If you would have peace, prepare for war. That does NOT mean stick your nose into every country's business, the way we do now, or spend more than the entire rest of the world on shit that gets cancelled before you ever even build one! No, it means you have a (relatively) small, very fast, extremely deadly, and ready to go at a moments notice armed force, like the Israeli's do, and you train them to within a tenth of perfection. Trouble is, with the buffoon we have in the White house right now, our peers think this is the time to challenge us, and, honestly, from their perspective, they are right! So it could happen at any time. And I'm sorry to say it, but if China, or less likely but still possible, Russia, decides to challege us, I have no doubt that our current Commander-in-Chief will resort to "the big boys" if things go sideways. So that is a thing to worry about, for certain. But, again, it's not something the average citizen can do anything about, other than head for the hills when the balloon goes up.
But see, here's the thing: All we have to do is make it another 50 to 60 years, tops. Because between Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Richard Branson, we WILL have a permanent presence in space by then, either at a LaGrange point, or on the moon. And we will either be heading for the asteroid belt, or already there. That is their ultimate goal, and they aren't standing still, waiting for anybody to "give them permission". And all their work is going to change life here on Earth. Look at how life has changed just from the things we learned from the moon landing. That brought home computers into existence, and look how THAT changed things! Who KNOWS what the coming half-century will bring?
You guys can keep doing your Cassandra bit, crying about how we're in the middle of a collapse, and cite all the statistics and material you like. The fact is we are much different than any civilization that has ever existed before. Our poor, today, live better than the Roman's wealthy. A wealthy Roman could never imagine always having refrigerated food, or having an instrument that cooks that food instantly, or an device that allows you to communicate with someone in the next town without usiing a runner and waiting days, or clothes that fit, and are smooth and comfortable, and can be cleaned at any time. Or shoes that fit, and cushion your feet no matter how rough the terrain you walk over. Or being able to bathe, with hot water, any time one wishes. And yet, unless you are homeless, you probably have all of those things.
So CAN we fail? Sure, there are a million ways we can blow it. But WILL we fail? NO, we won't. Not because we are "destined", or because we are "God's children", or because we are "the best". No, none of those. It's because we are the most determined creature on the face of this planet. If it can be broken, we'll break it. If it can be fixed, we'll fix it. If it can be DONE, we'll do it. And if it can be figured out, we WILL figure it out, especially if someone tells us we can't. So, yeah, we will walk on Mars, and probably many other rocks, asteroids, moons, and planets. Because that's who we are.
@TheAstroChuck You are arguing three different topics, and trying to make them all agree with your point, which they are NOT doing.
First of all, you are betting the "cheap" oil is going to "run out" in 10 years? Sorry, bud, but the best investment minds going HEARTILY disagree with you. They are deeply invested in all phases of drilling production, and distribution. And just the "light crude" reserves are enough to last for 65-70 years, with no modifications in our habits as they are now.
Second, electrical power is NOT tied to oil production. Yes, some of our plants are run on crude oil, but that is used to heat boilers that turn turbines. If the price of oil were to rise, it would just make switching to natural gas more feasable. Most electricity generation right now is from natural gas, which we have in abundance, so if we need to turn over more plants to that, we can.
We can also turn to solar in a much bigger fashion. It's a different distribution scenario, and it will anger the "big power" monopolies, which prefer the "central generation-wide distribution" set-up we currently use. We can, however, switch to solar on everyone's house, and large-scale solar over parking lots and municipal buildings, and acheive much of our needs that way. And that's assuming no further advancement in solar productivity, which we both know WILL occur when it's being used more often.
Finally, your projection about the "credit crunch-coming collapse". I sort of agree with you about this, except for this fact: If China starts to collapse, I see a vast underground of resistance suddenly appearing, and seizing the reins of government. It's a shame that these resistors will have as their common binding their religious belief, but that is unavoidable. They will have been meeting in secret, holding services in secret, and planning in secret. If China starts to fall, or if a war with us or the Russians breaks out, you WILL see that resistance rise up. And the reason this is important is because it will basically cancel everyone's debt with China. Oh, some countries, like the U.S., will make a great show of "living up to it's obligation" to the new nation. But many, especiially in Africa, will call it a push, throw out the Chinese who have been lording it over them, and start from scratch with a zero balance. So that is just one way we can clear the possible log jam.
Now, let me say this: I think I've shown that, for every doomsday scenario you can generate, I can posit an answer that leads us out of it. So it basically comes down to what we each, as individuals, WANT to believe. For every "expert" (you want the definition of expert? "X" is the random factor, and a "spert" is a drip working under pressure!) you produce, with calamitous facts and figures, I can produce another who can show everything is peaches and cream. So it really does come down to who you WANT to believe. And I've lived through too much combat, too many friend's deaths, and too much pain, to WANT to be morose and depressed VOLUNTARILY! I believe things WILL work out for the best, not because it always happens, but because of the FEW times I've seen it. I think we will survive, not because it's "destined", but because I've seen men who've been shot, who ought to have been dead right there, yet they fought so tennaciously for life that they made it through. And I've seen people with NOTHING, literally, come in from living on the streets, and within a year, year and a half, they have an apartment, car, job, and are handling life again. We, as a species, are SURVIVORS, and we haven't made it over 150,000 years just to collapse because oil runs out. Hell, LET IT RUN OUT! We'll figure out a way to make cars run on seawater! (And, of course, some company will figure out a way to control all the seawater, but that's an entirely different rant!)
So this is my last reply to you. Not because I'm insulted by you, or I find you boring. Far from it. I enjoy any chance to talk with intelligent people. But we've hit the "going round in circles" part of a discussion, where we both can continue to cite expert after expert, example after example, and never change anyone's mind. I'm too old for that. We've both stated our positions. You are a pessimist, and I an optimist. And I don't think either one of us will be around long enough to have an answer for this discussion. So let's just let it go, as amicable opponents, and move on to a different topic. Something less confrontational, perhaps. Like, oh, I don't know, politics? BWAAHAHAHAHAHA! Anyway, I've enjoyed our "talk", and I hope you have, too. Look forward to other discussions in the future.
Anyone who knows anything about history knows the world will change sometime. I personally find it foolish to say definitively how and when that will happen. Humans are notoriously wrong in their predictions, even scientifically based ones. There are always factors unknown that affect the issues. And people tend to get pretty creative when their existence is at stake so while technology might not thrust us into a Star Trek existence, people still might find a way to make things work for centuries to come. I'll just keep my eyes open instead of prophesying doom for the time being.
@TheAstroChuck I really don't disagree on any point other than the timeline. Narrowing it down to the decade is pretty far fetched, in my opinion. Of course, I might just be jaded from all the doomsday prophesies I encountered in religion. I'll have to see if I can get my hands on the book you recommend and see if it can change my mind.
@TheAstroChuck I'll look him up.
Well, thanks for brightening my day.
It's hard to know how much "gloom and doom" is appropriate. Technology might still solve some of our more pressing problems, but that's just a delay tactic. If we do not evolve into a steady-state society, we're doomed. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.
If we're both still around in 35 years, I'll ask you how that collapse is coming along....
Doom and gloom is a ridiculous way to approach it. Taking active measures to reduce global warming is good PR, but only addresses one of the problems, and there are many. Live life to the best of your ability, find joy and happiness where you can. Be aware of your surroundings, vote for those you feel most likely to at least try to bring a brighter future rather than returning to a past that never was. If you live in a developed country, you are already way ahead of the curve for survival. I live every day as comfortable as I can, doing what I like to do (reading and commenting on here and Facebook is a large part of my day ?). Nothing is guaranteed, certainly not life. And it doesn’t have to be some apocalyptic event. You could be driving down the road at a sensible speed and a truck coming the other direction blows a tire and crosses hitting you head on. Now, doesn’t spending time worrying about the timeframe of the demise of humanity seem kind of like a waste? ?
I agree totally. Although I have a more a philosophical bent than scientific (I’m too stupid to grasp scientific principles) it seems to me that technocracy is the new salvation machine. Once upon a time it was Jesus the Jew, then Enlightenment Eric and now The Digital Donkey. All steps along the way to another natural world mass extinction. My understanding is that extinction is a natural part of the evolutionary process. Perhaps we could embrace the time we have here rather than bewail our fate at having been born!
You make many valid points. I think as things get really bad you are likely to see governments impose drastic population control measures, along the lines of China's one child policy. Exemptions for the rich, of course.
Even China has not been able to sustain their one child policy. In countries where birth rates are low (Japan and Russia) it creates economic hardships for the aging populations of previous generations who cannot be viably sustained by the reduced numbers of younger people. This is one reason the China one child policy is being changed. Without a Solent Green style solution, or a massive population die off, there is little chance of voluntary reduction working. One need only look at the birth rates in the most impoverished and famine plagued areas of Africa to see that under bad circumstances birth rates actually go up, not down. We are like rabbits without natural predators.
Human belief in inexorable progress is not consistent. In the 19th Century there was enormous faith in technology and progress. WW1 was an enormous reality check on that. We saw a renewal of belief in progress after WW2. It has now waned with global cynicism and almost dispair. I think the underlying belief that technology and progress can solve our problems remains. What we doubt is the capacity of the human species to rise above greed and short term thinking. That will continue unless and until we have structures of power that reflect more noble goals, for the species and the planet. It may get much worse before it gets better, and it may not get better at all. A failed species on a failed planet.
The biosphere and human society are complex systems and it's very difficult to predict how things will play out and at what rate. While I am unsure of near-term collapse, it's a significant nonzero possibility, and honestly, I'm not looking forward to even approaching such a dystopian outcome.
That said ... you seem to have removed everything from being actionable.
An analogy would be, it's possible we could have a large-scale nuclear war in the next 10 years -- probably as possible as it's been in a very long time. But there's exactly zero I can do about it. That's WAY bigger than me. So I just live as if it weren't a possibility.
I'm not sure that's quite the case when it comes to, e.g., the environment or the rise of fascism all over the world. I do not want people to give up even trying to do anything about those things.
This has been one of the most annoying trends of my engineering career. I have always been shocked at how many otherwise intelligent people compartmentalize themselves so they don't have to think about subjects they're uncomfortable with.
The Progress Fairy is a big seller as also is Religion.
There are too many ultra-conservative people of all ages who would exist with their brains turned off rather than face being aware of their lives.
The planet is finite and the resources on it are finite. The population estimates for what the planet can readily sustain is 1.5 - 2 billion people and we're currently on track for 9 billion for 2050 and 10 billion by 2100. We are currently sitting at 3-4x what we should be and growing exponentially with no plans to even slow the increase outside of China.
There is a breaking point, I hope I'm not around to see it.
But we do not have any economic system that can/will work in a steady state. All we have are Ponzi schemes which require consistent (exponential) growth and produce large wealth discrepancies. No, I don’t know how things could work without continuous growth. But, if society can’t figure it out humanity dies out when the ecosystem collapses, if the economic collapse doesn’t kill us first. This field is probably the main st important research we can have.