If the Court rules in favor of Phillips, it would be a huge blow to LGBTQ civil rights laws — and not just in the context of bakeries. It could also open a legal path to anti-LGBTQ discrimination in multiple settings, from the workplace to housing, by letting business owners — even in states where such discrimination is prohibited — cite their religious beliefs to discriminate.
At the same time, it’s worth remembering that should the Supreme Court find against Phillips, they may be setting precedents — about the degree to which religious beliefs should be kept out of the public sphere, about artists’ free expression — that could, down the line, also be used against other marginalized groups.
It will also be a blow to the businesses. People will boycott those businesses they feel are discriminatory. There is plenty of precedent for this and often corporations have had to back down.
I once was involved with a city park that was created for the Boy Scouts but later turned over to the city. While I was there the Boy Scouts were banned from receiving financial aid from the city and people took a dim view of them when they used the park. The Girl Scouts, however, got a grant to use the park for weeks (This was the only city park in the country where there were cabins, bathrooms with showers, Fire pits, a climbing rock and a lot of other state park amenities). I think the Boy Scout acceptance of gays is a response to amend their discriminatory practices. But they still don't acknowledge of atheists, though.