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Blair on Brexit.

I am not a great fan of Tony Blair but his "Comment" piece in the Times today is spot on. He says that Boris has painted himself into a corner and his only option is to have another referendum on Brexit. I hope for everyone's sake he is right.

Moravian 8 July 22
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“It is not so long ago that a member of the Diplomatic Body in London, who had spent some years of his service in China, told me that there was a Chinese curse which took the form of saying, ‘May you live in interesting times.’ There is no doubt that the curse has fallen on us.
We move from one crisis to another. We suffer one disturbance and shock after another.”

Sir Austen Chamberlain March 1936 Since established to be a figment of his imagination, no such Chinese Curse exists.

My husband used that one all the time! 😂

It's also possible that it was a local or family thing that the diplomat heard in China and mistook for an ancient curse, or something that the diplomat made up and attributed so to give it some weight. But it's certainly interesting how that's since permeated our culture.

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I would rather force Boris Johnson into a General Election.

CeliaVL Level 7 July 22, 2019

I think it is imperative to get Brexit out of the way first. Who knows the tories may yet destroy themselves with their silly choices of ministerial and leader appointments

As Mcflewster says and Blair agrees with him, Brexit is a stand alone issue and should be dealt with first.
Boris will be tempted to have an election as Labour are in such disarray that he think he can win.

@Moravian I don't agree that Labour are in disarray. That is the impression the MSM try to give, but I think Labour would win enough seats to form a government if we had an election this autumn. I am hoping that Boris Johnson thinks Labour are in disarray so that he is tempted to call an election.

If we pull our socks up, there's time for both. And Labour is not in disarray, they just have a few vocal Blairites still determined to keep the Tories in power rather than have an honest man in number 10.

@CeliaVL The Labour Party are not united, far from it...they are riven with disunity over Brexit and they are not all behind the leadership. Corbyn has been too slow to come out and say he would back a second referendum. They are also not handling the Antisemitism within the party, and have allowed it to become a cancer within it. Both the Tories and Labour are sitting on 25% in the latest opinion polls, the Brexit Party and Lib.Dems not far behind on 18% and19% and both on the increase. It is far from clear what the outcome of a general election would be. The only party polling consistently well is the SNP in Scotland who, on 40% could be the deciding factor in any Westminster election,

@Marionville Antisemitism in the Labour Party is a non-issue created because the Right can't find anything else to attack Jeremy Corbyn with. Corbyn's position on Brexit is still that he would back a second referendum on any Tory deal and would support remain rather than a bad or no deal. If Labour wins a general election before Brexit happens, the party is committed to the leave plan originally announced, which is essentially Norway+. I think the SNP would very probably hold the balance of power after a general election held in the autumn, but would ally themselves with Labour to form a centre-left government.

@Jalnor Support for Jeremy Corbyn is just as strong as it was immediately after the last Leadership challenge, according to the latest poll.

@CeliaVL I’m sorry, but the antsemitism issue is a very real one, and it’s the denial of it ...just as you have just done...that has turned it into a festering sore. Corbyn is not being served well by some of his advisers...Seaumus Milne in particular. It’s only in the past 10 days that Labour have stated their intentions re another referendum, but there are a number of rebels who have stated they will not tow the party line. I follow politics closely and my interpretation of things differs from yours obviously...but things are changing so fast it’s impossible to predict anything,

@Marionville Incorrect regarding antisemitism. It's a tiny minority and Labour has by far the least of it out of any of the parties; but you'll have heard them say that one is too many and they're on it like white on rice. It's just that the media has found it to be a convenient smear tactic, even though it's far more true of the Tories than of Labour. They have not "allowed it to become a cancer," but rather they have allowed the media to get away with saying "it's just them and it's all over them and the sky is falling!"

@Jalnor If you believe that then you have not been paying attention...it may only have started as a small problem, but because they didn’t handle it properly it has snowballed. Mr.Corbyn made a statement about it last night to the Parliamentary Labour Party acknowledging the failures to process the complaints of antisemitism quickly enough. There were 625 complaints made in the six months between Jan and June this year, and 8 party members were expelled during that time, he has vowed to speed up the investigation process. There is no point in denying it exists, and yes it exists in other parties, as it does in the general population, but by denying they had a problem his team have compounded it. The perception that they are riddled with antisemites has been allowed to take hold in the minds of the voters...and that is their own fault. They need to stop denying and start being seen to be dealing with this toxic issue if they wish to be elected.

@Marionville These are facts:
Latest anti-semitism numbers from Labour Party

First 6 months of 2019

1283 complaints, 658 not LP members

Out of the 625 remaining
438: No action, case dismissed
97: Referred to NCC
49: Reminders of conduct
41: Official warnings

Out of 97 referred to NCC
73: No action, case dismissed
12: Left the party after referral
8: Expelled
3: Extended suspensions
1: Case unproven

Therefore out 625 complaints 511 dismissed after investigation.

In the alternative reality we live in, the response to these facts is 'Well they can't have investigated properly.' Of the more than 200 cases of anti-semitism referred by Margaret Hodge to the NEC, recommending that they be expelled, the majority were not members of the Labour Party.

It is very depressing to think that we shall probably have another couple of months of this nonsense.

@CeliaVL Whatever the truth of the matter...it has been handled badly

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We can but live in hope. We are entering a time of great uncertainty whatever happens.

Marionville Level 10 July 22, 2019

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