While I agree that he is likely guilty, I'd say at least a 51% chance, just remember that trying to switch focus to other guilty people is much like Trump supporters who constantly say "What about Hillary?". Then again, they won't admit any fault in Trump, so it's still a step ahead.

As for NDT, I can honestly see him being guilty of the date rape accusation. I think the newer accusations are more or less being blown up to help draw attention to the possible date rape. I believe the new women heard about the date rape and how it seems to have been swept under the rug and are coming forward in hopes that justice would be served.

The reason I can see the date rape accusation as being true is because there are 2 strong possibilities. The first is that the 2 of them were friends, he wanted more but she friendzoned him. They were close enough that he could lie to his friends that they were dating, but to her, he was just a friend. After so long, he felt he was entitled to have her after being a good friend. As many people have pointed out, he doesn't seem to really understand people or how to interact.

The other strong possibility is that they were dating and she was madly in love with him. He broke up with her and devastated her, and she wants to devastate him back. I find this unlikely compared to the former.

Also, as was said below, this supposedly is causing strain in his marriage. To me, that tells me that his wife feels as if he was capable of something like this. His wife should be the person who knows him best, and if she thought that he isn't capable of date rape, then she should be sticking by his side and not have a strained marriage due to unproven accusations.

I don't know how you calculated the probability of his guilt either. He has so far been accused of: 1- Trying to find a tattooed planet on a lady's freaking shoulder (not just any planet by the way, the one he is famous for casting out of our solar system) 2- Shaking hands with a co-worker in a way that made her feel uncomfortable and then apologizing for it, and 3- A rape allegation. Now, as @genessa pointed out, there is no way of knowing that due to insufficient evidence, but the least I can do is put myself in Neil's shoes. He is a relatively well-known celebrity. I really don't know why someone of his caliber needs to rape someone when there are literally hundreds of women waiting in line to sleep with him. Given his IQ, I seriously doubt that he ignored every instance of false rape allegation in the wake of the me too movement for 15 minutes of pleasure. I'm not saying that's impossible though, cause I know what power can do to the psyche of any human being.

It speaks to the integrity of liberal thinkers, as a group, that we don't give our own a pass when they misbehave. Naturally, there are going to be bad apples in every bunch. We can't control the fact that conservatives are slimy enough to look the other way when their people are awful. That's why they attract so many awful people, and why those awful people don't bother anymore to try to hide their awful behavior.

in what way do you figure tyson's guilt is probable? i am not saying one way or the other, although his explanations sounded reasonable to me, but in the end i do not know and there has been no investigation yet, so no one knows except tyson and the accusers (and re one of the accusers, maybe she knows and maybe she doesn't!)( on what basis is he probably guilty? i'm not being pugnacious. i'm really asking.

meanwhile, to answer your question, unfortunately reality stars that grab pussy have the support of a whole lot of criminals in power who are owned (as is the pussygrabber) by russia, and the judge that really likes beer has their support by extension. it sucks, as your question implies. it sucks bigtime. we must work to change that.

g