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Most political punditry is saying Trump will likely win reelection in 2020.

Here is the argument in THIS Forbes article (https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2019/02/26/why-president-trump-will-likely-be-reelected-and-what-it-means-for-global-security/#5943bd9741cb)....

  1. Most presidents get reelected

  2. The economy is very strong, jobless rate is at a historical low

  3. The nation is at peace, no new wars started, U.S. not in direct confrontation anywhere

  4. Democrats are doing a very good job of reminding voters why they elected Trump in 2016. E.g. squabbling, being obstructionists, offering nothing new, same very boring long policies that sound like socialism

  5. Trump's approval ratings are strong enough

  6. He will have up to a Billion to spend in his war chest, he will have an argument again that he does not take money from lobbyists and special interests

  7. People are now used to Trump's behavior. Democrats cannot win on this issue, people don't want a saint, they want a President who acts. Trump has acted on what other presidents did not - China, trade agreements, immigration are 3 examples. No other president was as decisive as Trump has been. I guarantee a lot of democrats and independents like his acting tough on all 3.He may be too tough but we have been waiting on these 3 issues for toooo long.

I hate Trump too but the facts are against we democrats. Other than Beto and Buttigieg, all other candidates are putting me to sleep. Every time you ask a question to Kamala Harris she dodges every question with "we should have a conversation on it", Gillibrand uses boring cliches like ... "I want to bring the country together, not tear it apart'. Enough already.

We are mad but the election facts are not on our side.

St-Sinner 9 Apr 24
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13 comments

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Hogwash!!!! Trump's ratings are going down to a base of about 33-35 percent. And, his erratic, greedy, cruel, and corrupt behavior is driving more and more people way from him and strengthening the resolve of those who oppose him to make sure that he is never again elected to any public office. And, he WILL be indicted and convicted when he is defeated.

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1 The Dems have failed to reform their elitist party.
2 Obama's economic success is now paying off enabling Trump to claim responsibility.
3 The electoral college will again favour a Republican vote.
So unless the Dems can offer someone will wife appeal it looks like the bigoted,racist, fantasist, liar, misogynist,moron is going to win again.

You mention one thing the electoral college that's the part that scares me! Trump didn't win in 2016 it was given to him by the electoral college. We the people, need to correct this now before the 2020 election is sold off in the same manor!

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Points taken... But the only reason Trump squeeked by was because there was decades of hatred built up over Hillary and the human cheeto fanned the flames. As long as the dems nominate someone who isn't an elitist wussy... The dems might win. They just need to enlarge the field to 30 people running...

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Its early. Lots of time for Dems to define themselves and for Litigation to eat away on Trumps hold. Too earlybto count final results.

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Err as to starting new wars, trade wars with at least China, Russia and EU. The Venezuela, the last elections there were considered fair by international observers... suddenly he wants to depose a popular elected head of state and is threatening military action as well as seizing assets of a foreign country illegally. The spin that he is putting out and desperately needy governments, like the UK Tory oligarch friendly regime, s well as the oligarchs media club tells all the supporting crap.
Sigh.

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  1. He does have the advantage of the incumbent but note that Ford lost to Carter, Carter to Reagan and Bush to Clinton.
  2. Jobs and employment are good but the GDP has tailed off in 2019 and the Fed has lowered its projected growth rates for 2019.
  3. You can't be serious, we are involved in at least 7 wars right now [news.vice.com]
  4. We'll at least no Dem is claiming that an opponents father was linked to a plot to kill JFK
  5. Trump's approval rating is his real weak spot. "Trump has been consistently unpopular throughout his first two years. At his best, so far, he was 7 points more unpopular than popular"
    6&7 are crap, Dems will come up with the money, they spent a lot more than Trump in 2016 and I expect the same in 2020 Congress needs to bring Trump under its thumb for all the material it has requested and pursue impeachment.

for a more balanced view of the Dems chances see [vox.com]

cava Level 7 Apr 25, 2019
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I would put trump at odds on winner... every democrat I speak with says Trump is horrible, despicable, etc and I fully agree with the assessment - but not one has actually disected his policies or told me how bad a job he is doing.
He tweets, or stands up and says, what he thinks in undiplomatic language and it seems to work for him across a large section of voters. He has made inroads on the 3 problem areas mentioned, and a start with North Korea - which few previous presidents have effectively tackled.
In the past I have worked with and for a lot of leaders - those who could drive projects forward were absolute bastards - but very effective at getting results. Trump is like them. Any President may or may not be liked, but his job is to get things done - preferably the things he said he would do once elected. Trump seems to be accomplishing this.

Politics my friend is not a game of substance, as it is of perception. Democrats are better policy wonks but still cannot win. Think about it.

Perhaps you need to widen your circle of Democrats or follow blogs and read articles from experienced and well versed people in education and media that have actually reviewed and analyzed his policies with a fine tooth comb. Take the tax reform, for instance. Many jumped up and down and claimed he did such a good job and yet, April 15th came and it was a different story...

I agree that perception often wins the game and he is good at throwing out tidbits but no real meat.... not every Democrat is just pointing out his obvious character flaws and following the trend to disparage him at every turn. There are plenty that truly do assess the merits and forecast the outcomes of policies as they are now and in the future. Likely, they are not on social media simply expressing disgust and hatred.

@thinktwice the great advantage of democracy is that each individual has an equal vote - it is also the greatest problem with modern democracy. In good old Greece the voters were all educated and it was deemed a civic duty to know of and be involved in the politics of the state, so every voter knew their version of truth. Sadly the education system of today is designed to mass produce a stream of workers for industry and commerce who in general follow the crowd - and sheep are not deep thinkers who dwell on political questions beyond - is my life ok? So while the perception of the majority is that life is fine - Trump will win.
Trump is shrewdly marketing himself to the modern mob, becoming 'their guy' and he is very good at marketing. - look around the world at how non-traditional politicians are taking over from the old traditional grey suited politicos. If political enemies shoot at him he turns it to advantage making the mob feel 'their guy' is being attacked.
The situation saddens me greatly; Trump is not a good president, but I do not believe a left wing idealist will gain enough mob support to remove him

@ShadowAmicus I agree with you to a certain extent but am basing my comments on a situation that is far less hopeless than those in the past...imagine if people just "gave up" during the reigns of some of the so called non-traditional leaders...while power might be granted to evil doers and tyrannical despots temporarily, in the end, common good and decency always seems to prevail.

To say that such a guy could continue is saying that the population that votes him in is a majority, and I don't think that is true. Seeing that there are decent Republicans that are now putting their hat in the ring for 2020, I think and want to believe that despite all of the past hateful rhetoric, common sense and decency will surface and we will get someone who will unite us once again...to be honest, I don't give a shit what party that person belongs to...I never did.

@thinktwice I saw another post - Benjamin on free speech - where the argument was made that even if the intent of words is to inspire hatred or violence, and most people would find what was said despicable, an individual must have the right to say it. I agree. The other sides of that are
1..That the ruling class take note of the dissentful voices and comprehend the drivers that cause that dissent
Because if the rulers take no action the dissenters only course of action is disruption or violence against the state
2. the general populace must be educated and intelligent enough to fully comprehend the intent of the dissenters words
but I fear that reasoning power and ability to assess an argument are not universal skills among the populace and that personality politics will win out.
I think that the way successive US governments have shut down dissentful voices and ignored the wants and needs of various sectors of the country led directly to Trumps election - and because Trump is seen by many to be addressing those issues he will be re-elected.
I think the best you can hope for is a nice guy for 2024.

@ShadowAmicus I don't think "nice" is the appropriate word...one does not have to be nice to be moral and looking out for the interest of those less fortunate, educated, etc. To me, taking advantage of people when they are not at the same level of sophistication is just abhorrent...

I know in business, I am tough as nails and have to make some very hard decisions and have been called every name in the book...but those decisions were made for the good of the employees and with no underlying motivation or need for ego stroking and personal gain.

Free speech is also a misnomer...we are free to speak and share our minds but societal norms must also come into play where people refrain from hurting each other and use basic manners to not intimidate, insult or degrade others...free speech with a few leashes to hold back hatred and potentially harmful actions from others...filters are self-imposed, not governed by laws...and it seems many have lost those filters or don't think they apply because they are so astutely ignored by those who are in positions of "leadership", ie. the president.

@thinktwice take your second paragraph and replace employees with country and you have a fairly good description of the presidents role - taking hard (often very hard) decisions.Have added a link to the free speech clip - you may find it interesting

@ShadowAmicus "no personal gain or enrichment"..I believe these two items are not part of His plan...so far, there are so many examples of how he or his family have benefited...I believe a businessperson should get paid fairly and profit to a certain extent, but not at the expense of others..He is neither business man nor leader...a rich boy playing with America, IMO

@thinktwice I totally agree that Trump is a horrendous human who should never have been allowed into the role of president - but in Hilary he faced weak opposition and I still see no evidence of any candidate having much chance of defeating him this time around.

@ShadowAmicus I am struggling to find a candidate that I am willing to put my money and time behind. I am not necessarily driven by party politics as much as supporting someone that is reasonable and decent. They all come with baggage...and it is sad to me that this has come down to those that are less vile than the current guy...our public officials sure have lowered the bar and that is not good for the American people...

@thinktwice It is always sad to have to choose between bad and worse - which is why so many people are rejecting traditional politics - but then there must have been better options than donald

@ShadowAmicus There were way better choices than donald or hillary...we all fucked up

0

That's a pretty honest assessment of where things stand right now.

BD66 Level 8 Apr 25, 2019
3

Interesting that the piece was written by someone from the Lexington Institute, a think tank funded by large corporations that benefited or got support from the current administration....a bit of psychology to perhaps set up a defeatist cloud over intelligent Democrats, since Forbes is on our reading list...

His talking points can be refuted just as easily...I don't buy it...see the response from @SeaGreenEyes...she is spot on

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I think it will be a very good outcome because the democrats and their committees will get plenty of time to make Trump miserable in the second term with agenda blocking, impeachments and more committee investigations that would be far more than what conservatives did to Obama. People will have live end to end coverages that will make them forget the Nixon era. This will be a 'bigly' huge black eye for the Republicans and will compel them to overhaul the party by cleansing it for good.

@SeaGreenEyez This will be good 4 consecutive democratic President and Congress terms and will make history. We will have universal healthcare with single payer, corporations will not be people, SC will be tamed, campaign finance reforms will come in, compassionate but tough immigration will happen.... all good things. It is also possible that Trump will be in prison.I might even marry a Republican who will be submissive at the time with no power and voice anywhere 🙂

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I think it is important to recognise those factors.

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The points made seem more like opinion spinning the facts to fit the agenda. For Instance When the last president served only one term, economic conditions and employment were not all that different. In both cases the economy was subsidized by huge deficit spending.

No new wars... however military actiosn aroudn teh world still continue and veterans benefits have been cut So those who fight in those military engagements and are injured physicllyor emotionally don't always get services

Trump's approval rating hovers aroudn 30% Is that really enough?

Trump will definitely have to face at least oen challenger (so far) in the republican primary.

Most independents know that democrats are doing less to obstrcut than what republicans did under Obama.

Trump does nto have the support of (enough) independents, and without them he can't win.

It is still a year before the primaries even start. Tryign tp predict who will win in 2020 is aobut on par with tryign to predict hwo many hurricanes and tornadoes wil hit ht eU.S. that year.

Forbe's itself is a conservative publicantion with a mostly conservative bias. They are nto totally devoid of jounalistic ethics, but when they spin they alwayus spin to the right.

3

The employment figures are as low as theyare because everybody needs two jobs to make ends meet.

Or three.

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