My prediction is that the downturn will be shortlived for 60% of the losses; it will make back 15% of 25% lost, and gradually add back the other 10%. Most of this depends on the inroads the pandemic makes in the US, and not much for other countries, even China. China's losses will hurt, but their population is less critical to their commercial performance, and they don't travel much anyway. Losses in the US will also be painful, but only a small percent (less than 10%) that die will come from within the working class. The perception that Trump mishandled the crisis still won't matter to his base; nothing matters to them. His support between 40% and 49% may be a different matter. A 1-2% loss might have a perceptible effect in the election. Look to see how much help the US offers to all the other countries and how many other scandals are uncovered. (i.e. sweetheart deals for test kit makers that didn't actually work). The US dollar is quite secure; nothing to really replace it...