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This Coronavirus is a walk in the park compared to epidemics faced by our ancestors. Records show the current death rate for Coronavirus in Italy is 268 per million or a measly 0.03%, and so far the US rate is a tenth of that.

Compare with Cholera historically: 3.4%-8.9%, Small Pox: 3%-7%. In 1793 Yellow Fever killed 9% of the population of Philadelphia. Coronavirus would probably not even have been noticed in those days.

We are very fortunate.

WilliamFleming 8 Apr 5
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Yes it is not quite as bad as some other diseases. But you have to compare like with like, which you can not do, because the figures for corona virus, (so far) are for a disease where modern quarantine understanding and disease control measures have been applied. Most of that did not exist in many of the past events.

To get a good comparison you would have to find an infected county where they do nothing, and then wait until it is over.

When it comes to treatment, all countries are essentially doing nothing, except maybe using ventilators for some. Quarantine might slow the spread, but eventually almost everyone will be exposed.

Smallpox used to kill 30% of those who caught it, and the others were scarred for life while the Coronavirus is only killing about a third of reported cases. I say reported because for most cases the symptoms are mild or nonexistent and are not reported.

But I agree. We won’t know the answer until it’s over.

@WilliamFleming But I said nothing about treatment.

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Case mortality rates as of 3 April (CFR)

France : 9.11%
UK : 9.45%
Italy : 12.07%
USA : 2.55% This figure is going to rise dramatically over the next week or two.

Measuring the mortality rate relative to total population is not worth much. Especially not when we're talking about times when no one knew anything about antibiotics, or germs, or -- you get the picture. The only number that has any real meaning is the CFR.

The raw numbers don't tell us much other than how many people are infected at any time, how many have died, and how many active cases remain and how many have recovered.

Comparisons with past epidemics/pandemics doesn't tell us anything either. For example; if the 'Black (bubonic) Plague' were to start up in earnest tomorrow, it would be eradicated quickly. Why? First, and most importantly, it is a bacterial infection that responds to antibiotics, though they are not always effective. On a virus, antibiotics are only good for secondary infections that might occur as a result of the body's resistance being low or having prior issues. Bubonic infections are still with us, but for the most part, it is not a problem.

HIV/AIDS has killed millions over the years and it is an ongoing problem, mainly in Africa, but still occurs in the rest of the world. There are between 31 and 36 million people with active cases today. If a direct comparison were to be made between the Plague and HIV/AIDS, the plague would still be the big killer in terms of raw numbers. However, to make a fair comparison a lot of other factors would have to be considered and the results might not be so cut and dried.

In the days of the Plague people did not move about as freely as they did even in the 1500s. It is thought that the Plague began in Asia and was brought to Africa and Europe by ships trading in Asia or traders overland. Let us hypothetically say that the COVID-19 outbreak began in Asia in 1345 and the ships or traders travelers moving over the Silk Road brought it to Europe and Africa instead of the plague. What would happen? It would be interesting, to say the least.

Whether they were on sailing ships or traveling overland on the Silk Road, it is doubtful a person with the disease would either live long enough to finish the trip or still be contagious. Also, anyone who contracted it from them would probably never travel much of anywhere or suffer a similar fate. In all probability, the virus would not have arrived in Africa or Europe.

I don't want to guess about what might have happened if it did manage to get that far. The point is that direct comparisons just don't say much.

I don’t think case mortality rates are useful when comparing various epidemics. The only meaningful figure is the percentage of the population killed. That of course would not be known until the epidemic was over.

The fact remains that many epidemics used to typically kill three to nine percent of an affected population. The Coronavirus does not promise to kill anything like that percent.

If you want to compare case mortality rates, Cholera kills up to fifty percent of its victims. For smallpox it was about 30%, and the victims were scarred for life.

The case mortality rates listed for Coronavirus are probably greatly inflated because in most cases the symptoms are relatively mild and are not reported.

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The Black Death of the 14th century killed 6 out of 10 people in a year. 60%, in London, where the most mass graves have been found.

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What data sources are you using for Covid-19?

Thanks for the historical data.

[worldometers.info]?

@WilliamFleming Thanks.

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