Thanks. I was wondering how to do that kind of analysis. (I still don't know, but I'm very glad to see someone taking an apparently rational crack at it.)

It's still of course a question of acquiring sufficient herd immunity --
and disease treatments until the herd immunity arrives.
Not too surprising from what we've seen, it looks like it may be a bit slow and painful coming.

Being a computer nerd, my first guess would have been to attempt to run simulations. But that approach's weakness would be the same -- how do you know the R-naught(new term for me, thanks) number.
I'm happy to see the question worked on by somebody reputable like the Harvard group.