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The Wisdom Of Crowds

I'm watching a NOVA on PBS right now and this is what they are talking about. Applied mathematics, probability, statistics, predictions, likelihood of future occurrences, the law of large numbers... I love this siht.

How could we apply the wisdom of our crowd?

SACatWalker 8 Mar 1
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0

Since the 60's ther has been a movement that defies science so it is not easy. They state that facts are not facts and that a fact can change with time. Sounds like trumpie. There are a number of current day phlosophers that actually believe this to be true.The war on science has been difficult to change because our scientists are generally while males who are not religious and these people then to associate with members of their beliefs rather than those outside of their profession. This makes the speading of their knowledge very difficult to the general population. This is evident by the number of people who believe the world is 5000 to 10000 years old;did not know the earth circles the sun in 365 days, believe the moon landing was staged.It is important that we do everything we can to speard the knowledge.

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Isn't that what the point system is based on

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I haven't seen Wisdom of the Crowds. We don't have cable TV. However, I checked Wikipedia and got the idea.

We may have a problem with diversity and independence, we have lots of agnostics and athiests, but few religious people, if any. Yet, there is a large population here, from around the world, and that is diversity. That we are online tends to keep us independent, but we are alike on many issues. So, results may be skewed. We need to test the crowd with some initial questons to deterine the Wisdom of this Crowd.

We might ask, "Will Trump be elected for another term?" But, we have to wait too long for an answer. We need questions that can be tested in a week or two, at most.

Anyone wish to offer a test question?

@Zacula It exists in many thnigs, golden spiral, interesting no conclusions

4

What you're referring to is the study of emergence, which analyzes group-based behavior, such as seen in ants and bees, and postulates that groups are often better at problem solving than any one person. As evidence of this, the famous 1906 story of the ox weight guessing contest at a fair in rural England is offered, as reported by Sir Francis Galton, who added up the roughly 800 guesses (written on paper) and discovered that the average of the 800 was closer to the actual weight of the animal than any single individual's guess, including that of the winner. And yet, I believe that one must be careful when relying on crowd-sourced answers, that you don't wind up with the 'wisdom of the mob.'

@SACatWalker As in ochlocracy (mob rule).

@SACatWalker I don't think we are a mob, but there's always the potential, it seems to me, for insufficient diversity of thought or suppression of nonconforming opinion when a crowd is involved. I am troubled by the potential for a supermajorities to reach groupthink. I believe it was Mark Twain who said, 'Anytime you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect.' Caution is all I meant to communicate, and not in abundance. 🙂

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Hmm. That would take a lot of effort...

@SACatWalker It's more complex than that. Even if we could agree on metadata tagging, and build a data lake or data warehouse that we could run analytics on, I'd argue that, based on what we built, I could have a Tableau developer create visualizations to show pretty much whatever I wanted. Lies, damn lies, and statistics...

Also, this crowd is self-selecting and in that way homogeneous. We don't meet a few of these requirements.

From [en.wikipedia.org]

"Based on Surowiecki’s book, Oinas-Kukkonen[4] captures the wisdom of crowds approach with the following eight conjectures:

It is possible to describe how people in a group think as a whole.
In some cases, groups are remarkably intelligent and are often smarter than the smartest people in them.
The three conditions for a group to be intelligent are diversity, independence, and decentralization.
The best decisions are a product of disagreement and contest.
Too much communication can make the group as a whole less intelligent.
Information aggregation functionality is needed.
The right information needs to be delivered to the right people in the right place, at the right time, and in the right way.
There is no need to chase the expert."

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