And a quote: *”A poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” Shakespeare Quote from an awe dropping editorial from the “Free Inquiry” magazine “Is Intelligence Toxic.” (it can be). Some takeaways from the dismal article: If All Species Go Extinct, Can We Be Any Different?
"Earth’s 10–14 million species (86 percent of them undescribed) are estimated to constitute less than 0.3 percent of the billions that ever existed. Sanity check: Life dates back 3.5 billion years, but multi-celled life evolved much more recently, about 600 million years ago. If each multi-celled species were to split into two at the (conservative) rate of once every 10 million years with no extinctions, then earth would now be home to over 10 to the 18th power, species—a hundred billion times more than the estimate. Clearly, extinction has been a very grim reaper. If environmental changes afflict species faster than they can adapt, they vanish. But hey, we have unparalleled adaptability! We can live in any environment, even the vacuum of space. With our secret sauce we’ll surely beat the odds, right?"
”Of course, people offer innumerable optimistic explanations of SETI’s dead silence. Occam’s Razor tells me that the absence of evidence is evidence of absence—we are alone in the cosmos, despite many technological civilizations having emerged over the vastness of deep time. Why? I contend that high-tech civilizations flash in and out of existence in the proverbial blink of an eye. A thousand years is a very long time to live with an exponentially growing list of existential threats such as I have been at pains to describe. But a thousand years is only a millionth of a billion years. Thus, the chance of two high-tech civilizations existing within hailing distance at the same time is tiny. Shakespeare was prescient: “A poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” The bottom line was that intelligent beings only last a few thousand years and any that have existed have long since gone extinct.
[secularhumanism.org]
Yes I have always thought that that was the best explanation of the Fermi paradox. And we may not even be that safe, just counting existing threats, is not enough, you also have to think about as yet undiscovered technologies. There only needs to be one, just one, undiscovered technology which is both planet destroying, and whose dangers can not be foreseen before hand, out there. Waiting for every technically advanced species to discover it, and every planet with technology is fated to end in with a great sad accident, and no way to escape it.
In a report years ago in the "Humanist" it was shown that religion is a universal idea and one that transcends space and time. It is also the cause of massive friction (for sure just look at our own planet) and could have spelt the doom of past 'intelligent' life forms. This report list many other scenarios of how intelligent life forms eventually go extinct. My bet on many would be overpopulation. With intelligence often comes arrogance and hubris and the idea their intelligence will protect them from the laws of mother nature. This is another area we are headed.
@JackPedigo Yes, all civilizations die of hubris. Could well be so.
@Fernapple "Could well" sounds way too optimistic. We have not shown any inkling we could go any other way in over 2,000 years.
@JackPedigo Well there may be some civilizations which die of natural causes, where hubris is not involved, not common perhaps, but possible.
@Fernapple LOL like a meteor hitting their planet.
I find the reasonableness of this oddly comforting, not yet sure why. Thanks for posting!