COVID-19 Origin Debate
Katelyn Jetelina MPH PHd
I’ve been asked by many to comment on the SARS-CoV-2 origin debate and new Wall Street Journal article. And, honestly, I don’t want to touch this topic with a 10-foot pole. But, I will leave you with a few thoughts:
The origin of COVID-19 is an ongoing scientific debate. Scientific consensus has not settled. We can all agree that the Wuhan market was an amplification event (i.e. super spreader), but I don’t think we will ever know how it got there because we’ve missed the window of opportunity for critical data. Disproving the lab leak will be close to impossible. This is a tragedy, but I look forward to seeing the ongoing science we can muster.
Transparency is key, and I don’t like how things have to be “leaked” to be known.
The debate is another example of false dichotomies. In reality, opinions range on a scale from “natural spillover” to “lab leak.” Perspectives fall somewhere within the spectrum of probabilities. I lean more towards natural spillover, but I’m certainly not 100%. (I’m a ~70% given some evidence released last year.) I think everyone should recognize where they land on this spectrum and why. Also recognize there are conflicts of interest all over the place.
Spatial patterns of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan in December 2019 and January–February 2020. Source: Worobey et al., Science.
Many initially dismissed lab spillover because of the original messenger (Trump) and because it was wrapped up in other conspiracy theories, like being a Chinese bio-weapon. (The claim that the virus was engineered is clearly debunked. There’s scientific evidence that it wasn’t an intentional event.) I admit that privately I initially dismissed the idea of a lab leak because of these reasons, which I constantly self-reflect on. As a scientist, I can do better with this noise. We all can. And, we must.
Underlying all of this is that there is the possibility of a lab leak, and a possibility of a natural spillover, and a possibility of intentional lab leaks. We need to address all of these to ensure a safer future. I’m afraid we’re losing sight of this.
I’ve been spending the past few days with Dr. Rivers eating tacos, enjoying happy hour, and processing whatever the hell we’ve been through the past three years. During this time, she wrote the following balanced piece on this topic that I think is worth everyone’s time (see below).
Love, YLE
From the comments -
Phillip B Flexom
Feb 28
'As an MD and also having an advanced degree in population genetics and evolutionary biology,I think your positions are mistaken. This virus almost certainly underwent modificatins in a lab prior to its emergence as a worldwide pathogen. One can call it "gain of function". I for one do not feel gain of function research is all bad; in fact under its broad definition we are foolish to let politicians define what research can and can not be done as I see no other way we can keep one step ahead of epidemics. Having said this, it must be done with great caution. Was this some sort of intentional leak; i feel not likely. But you appear foolish to hold on to the theory this jumped from bats to humans in the Wuhan wet market. The Covid spike protien's super strong affinity to the human ACE-2 receptor as well as the furin cleavage site show almost certain modification. This ia a case where epidemiologists need to defer to geneticists and evolutionary biologists. The mere fact that the laboratory records from Wuhan appear to have been purged is pretty incriminating. And to date, no matching Covid virus has yet to have been found in any bat in the world. Similar DNA to other bat coronviruses does not cut it. I would remind you we share over 96% of of our human genome with a chimpanzees but we are an entirely distinct species. Covid -19 most likely emerged from an unfortunate lab leak.'
And this - 'The natural origin hypothesis proposes that after 290 million years of existence, Coronaviruses, long believed to be just a mere nuisance and cause of the common cold, somehow evolved to become a serious threat to civilization. Even though they comingled with the earliest mammals 60 million years ago, with bats 50 million years ago, and the earliest humans 3 million years ago, only now have finally evolved to pose a serious threat, and it is just a coincidence that the point at history where they became serious threats ALSO happens to be when we started making more dangerous versions in labs. Let's assume that was a coincidence, and it just bad luck.
If that is true, it would justify the expenditure of finite resources to monitor, track, combat, and manage the threat. It would justify billions, possibly trillions in funding. It would justify countless scientists to spend their limited research time fighting Coronaviruses rather than any number of other possible areas to research. Maybe promising student who might have made a breakthrough in nanotechnology decides to drop his ME coursework and switch to virology.
On the other hand, if it turns out that Coronaviruses left on their own don't really do much other than cause the common cold, and only become global threats when we alter them in labs to make them more infectious, then all of those billions and trillions would be .... not wasted per se... but inefficiently spent. We could simply have enforced and expanded the Gain of Function moratorium set up during the Obama administration, and then spent those billions to trillions ending world hunger, combating climate change, fixing systemic racism, or colonizing Mars.
Therefore, not necessarily finger pointing, but a firm quest to figure out what the hell happened could help us at the very least do a better job organizing where we invest our limited resources to prevent (or possibly not accidentally cause) another pandemic.'
For my 2 cents worth the lab idea is another way too many of us use to avoid reality. The damage cause by too many of us gets a lot of rolling eyeballs, but it is real and applicable to every life form on the planet. Zoonotic pathogins are real and our infatuation with meat and confining animals is close quarters will only exacerbate this issue. Recently, millions of chickens had to be slaughtered due to an outbreak of Avian Flu "As demand for eggs has risen, production in the U.S. has slumped because of the ongoing bird, or "avian," flu epidemic. Nearly 58 million birds have been infected with avian flu as of January 6, the USDA said, making it the deadliest outbreak in U.S. history. Infected birds must be slaughtered, causing egg supplies to fall and prices to surge." Putting animals (we are part of this group) in close quarters often causes epidemics and pandemics. This will not stop and, I suspect (as do many scientists) it will only get worse. We continue to look to the river in Egypt (de Nile) for explanations.
Yeah, this question might not be resolvable, but the Rethugs will resolve it for us by using confirmation bias to arrive at their predetermined end…ChiComs did it. This while Desantis works to undermine confidence in vaccines and maybe ban them, because why not, as it’s a thumb in Brandon’s eye. Don’t Fauci my Florida.
The coming months will bring the Spectacle of political shitshow theater, from the folks who brought us the invasion of Iraq (ie- yellow cake) and the lies of a stolen 2020 election. Funhouse mirrors.
Why is the cornerstone of GOP politics "FIND SOMEONE TO BLAME?"
Every Rethug is jumping on the Energy Dept. report that a "Leak is probable" at the Wuhan lab. What they're not reporting is that the report has a "Low Confidence" grade on the source information.
As Bannon would have it, flooding the zone with shit.