When will Christians become a minority in the USA?
The decline in the percentage of Christians in the USA has been well documented by several long-term, statistically valid studies. I got curious about when Christians might become a minority in the USA, so I plugged some of this data into a spreadsheet and made some forecasts using linear regression. The forecast, based on the 70 year trend, is some time in the early 2100's. But this downward trend has accelerated significantly recent years. The forecast, based on the most recent 20 years is sometime in the 2040's, and "nones" may outnumber Christians sometime in the 2050's.
I've created a 7 minute video that discusses these forecasts in detail, and gives some reasons why the downward trend in Christians has been accelerating in the past two decades.
Maybe Christians will become a minority in our lifetimes!!!
Here's the video:
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If you look at other countries such as the Netherlands or France, you'll see that this is a well-trodden path. The congregations of churches have been getting steadily more grey-haired, and fewer in number, and the numbers of non-believers are now very nearly a majority.
Denker
Level 7
June 10, 2018
2
Never.....
They recruit to much. Their whole concept depends on conversion. As long as they keep guilting people into feeling they will burn in hell.
Bit the bigger reason conversion works. Christians are the first to rally in a crisis. They say its their calling. But if your an addict. A'll the anonymous groups is at the church. In a a flood go to the church for shelter. Food bank at the church. Go to the hospital and who shows up.... The priest. Hell I was hospitalized off and on over 5 months last year. Only person who visited me was the priest! My own pagan grove never showed up! The church prides its self on being there when people are in need. So people see the church as safety and comfort. Damn I will admit last year when I almost died. I thought about it. I was depressed and lonely. Fuck still am. Being there for people when they are at their weakest. Preying upon that need to belong and feel.loved.
Desertkatt
Level 5
June 10, 2018
1
Not soon enough. Later tonight would be a good time.
obviouspseudonym
Level 5
June 10, 2018
4
Without taking the time yet to watch the video, let's state that one can find a near association of Christians with white people. Everyone knows that whites are set to become a minority in the US by 2045. So let's not be gleeful about this process. We're not going to become a nation of well-educated white atheists. We are becoming a nation of non-whites who will probably become majority Muslim over time: We will become another Pakistan or Saudi Arabia, etc. This is not a future to wish for.
skeptic99
Level 5
June 9, 2018
0
Why should it matter if we are white atheists or nonwhite atheists? For that matter, why do you assume nonwhites will be majority Muslim? Why wouldn't nonwhites follow the same trends? As the minority group expected to show the most significant population growth in the coming decades is Hispanics, wouldn't Catholicism be more likely?
You seem petrified about being the minority...why? Despite your fears and sarcastic innuendos....I don't get. @skeptic99.
@DonThiebaut Because only a fool would passively accept the replacement of himself and his own people with people totally unlike him. What we are experiencing here is The Great Replacement where the US becomes a non-white nation. I have too much respect for my parents, grand-parents and my ancestors whom I can trace back to the early 1700s and even the 1600s in this country. I understand and cherish the hard work, the blood, the sweat and the sacrifice they endured to give me the nation I was born into. I will not pass from this life and blithely see all this handed away as though it were of no value or consequence. What kind of worthless POS would hold such a contemptible attitude to think that blood and kin are of no meaning? This is what life is about. A few of us still realize this.
@DonThiebaut, @Honey4Oshun Because transitions like this do not happen peacefully. Study history. These kinds of changes are bloody. And I will not happily pass this fate to my children and grand-children. What kind of man would?
@DonThiebaut in amerika most Blacks 13% of population are Protestants, Most Latinos 18% of population are Catholics-they still cling on to slave religions they were indoctrinated with into their minority roles. You take those percentages and add them to Whites in the bible belt thats another 65% of the Christian population and what do you have? Honey relax....@skeptic99
@skeptic99 People of color are not 'totally unlike me'. They are human beings. They are absolutely as deserving as you and I. Frankly, your entire comment is a practice in overt racism. As for the assertion that violence will follow: it's typically caused by racial tensions, such as those you espouse. Congratulations on being the problem you fear.
Wouldn't that be great! By your fastest trendline I'll have to reach my 100th birthday to see it with my own eyes.
It might motivate me to take a lickin' and keep on tickin'.
mordant
Level 8
June 9, 2018
3
I'm right there with ya friend. I'll be 90-100 in the 2050's. Let's eat our bran buds so that we can hang around long enough to see the Religious Right collapse into irrelevance.
Better yet, let's spread "The Light Of Reason" so that maybe it will happen sooner!!
Great video! I would speculate that the trend will accelerate. The internet may have given it the kickstart, but as more people break away from religious influence, they will influence others to do so as well. I'm certain that many will stubbornly hold out for the duration of their lifespans, but very few children (relative to the past) will take up their parent's religion. Millenials are twice as likely to be a 'none' than their parents, and our children should be at least 4 times as likely. We could see the Christian minority by 2030, potentially, though I think 2040 is a reasonable estimate barring unforseen factors.
DonThiebaut
Level 7
June 9, 2018
1
There's some evidence that this kind of trend does accelerate, as people who were only "believers" because of social pressure, business reasons, etc., publicly lose interest in a faith that they privately never believed, because there are no longer any penalties for not believing. It will be interesting to see whether this happens with Christianity. I have no idea whether it actually will.
Baby! I'm riding with the millennial and the children ....they going to be the ones to flip the script!
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