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Why Donald J Trump will win in 2020.

his base is primarily made of one issue voters.

his base is very loyal and regardless of his I will follow him to the ends of the Earth.

although the one issue voter really only cares about one issue.

they will except the rest all of the Republican / Trump agenda if it means that one issue secure.

here is a list of single issues that will carry the Republican agenda in no particular order.

1:gun rights( take my gun out of my cold dead hand)

2: religious right( Trump should end every speech with God Bless the USA)

3: nationalist( America First right or wrong)

4: right to life( the Democrats just want to kill babies)

5: xenophobe( keep those immigrants out of this country all they want is welfare)

each one of the single voter groups by themselves as insignificant

in aggregate adds up to about 40 voting population.

presidents typically get too much praise when the economy is good and too much blame when the economy is bad . Trump will claim victory over the economy this is hard to refute. this will add about 5% to Trump's base.

the Democratic agenda for the past 2 years has essentially been anti Trump all the time. therefore they have some catching up to do.

Social Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, has created an opportunity for the Republicans; this I will call the Red Scare

( Khrushchev said We will bury you) this will no doubt add to Trump's base.

due to the Relentless attacks by democrats Trump may be able to obtain a victim status, this may not resonate well with these base unless is perceived to be fighting back,( it's us against them).

the only Democrat that is a perceivable threat to the re-election of Donald Trump is former Vice President Biden. he will have to find

a way to unite Democrats and reduce the Red Scare Factor.

this will be especially difficult Biden will have to run on the Obama economy. which may be difficult.

due to the high degree of polymerization we will expect a high turnout and a spirited campaign

m16566 7 May 17
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7 comments

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1

The Dems cannot get organized and have 23 or more running. They also need to come out strongly and appear on Fox News, then also call Trump's China tariffs (that America will pay for) the "Trump Tax." Why not? Trump makes up things and so do most of the GOP. Call this tariff and others the "Trump Tax." That might get through to a few people.

Not everyone can see it. A man at my work got so riled on this that he had to excuse himself and leave the building because of his "great desire to do me physical harm." His stand is that this is Trump's way of bringing jobs back to America. The higher prices will cause us to pay so much money that manufacturing will be taken up again in our country at a profit. What a crock! What utter nonsense!

I actually support the position of your coworker.
I've called for tariffs on Chinese goods for years.
maybe shortages of say computers Americans will learn how to make them,
you don't need to hear that from me my post was simply my prediction.
I could be wrong, we'll stay in touch on this,
it will be fun to see how events play out. hopefully you and I will argue

@m16566 I do not hope that you and I (or anyone else) will argue and I do not support ideas of taking political arguments into a fistfight. I'm capable but it is juvenile and not worth it.

1

I cannot respond to each of you individually but I wanted to thank everybody for the rational discussion of the issues.
I knew this post would be unpopular on this site, for the most part people have not resorted to name-calling or typing in all-caps to .
it is far too soon to tell and I look forward to the plot thickening over the next 18 months

2

I tend to disagree with the idea he will win in 2020. In 2016, he got a lto of independent voters who wer tired of regular politics, ande thought they'd give him the benefit of a doubt. I doubt that msot independents who voted for him in 2016 woudl do so again... now that they know what he is really like.

Granted Trump has about 35-35% of loyal single issue voters, but that isnt' enough to get him a win especially when he lost the poplar vote in 2016. The left has about 30-35% of loyal voters too, even if they are not quite so vocal.

In any case, it is still an entire year before the primaries even start. A lot cna happen between ow and then. It looks liek Trump may start a war with Iran. Johnson would tto have been able to win re-election due to an unpopular war. Trump will fce at lest once challenger in the primaries. A lot can happen in a year.

I know I mentioned this earlier but I want to thank you for the your clear analysis off my post you were able to make your point without name calling everything you said I agree with and I'm anxious to see what's going to happen I just wish everybody was show articulate

Thank you. I think name calling is a good way to stop eopel from beign open minded about what I hve to say, so I choose not to engage in in... most of the time. If I am tired, or sick, I don't have as much patience.

Perhaps is all of the drama that's coming out of the House of Representatives, there will be an anti-politics backlash against the Democrats.
Trump will be able to claim that he was merely defending himself against a little legal coup. and then attack the Democratic nominee on the most extreme left-wing issues.
there are so many candidates that have said so many things he will be able to paint them all with a broad brush. even if the eventual nominee is more of a moderate, he'll be able to use the most extreme statement regardless. Trump's best position will be the guy who gets things done.
This will endear him to undecideds and moderate voters

@m16566 Once again we tend to differ. The courts are ruling to honor congressional subpoenas, by the tiem of the elections, most of the things Trump is going to such great pains to hide will be generally known.

Also Trump has quietly doen a few things that won't play well politically, such as ending the clean water act, endign funding to search for a cure for AIDS and quite a few other things he did for no apparent reason. However, they are likely to come up in the election.

we will see, this may or may not hurt Trump politically regardless we will see history made

1

Anyone who supports Trumpism is a racist, bigot or hater at heart. Feel sorry for them.

Geez, you can support Trump and not be any of those. You paint humanity with a broad brush.

@Darthpug Trump supports racism, bigotry and is a hater. How could someone support him unless they have same values.? My ex-husband, a former heavy metal drummer became is a Fox junkie. He used to help me with my LGBTQ business, socialize with my interracial friends and we made friends in Jamaica and Mexico. He has become a bitter hateful person since watching only Fox News. Same with a buddy of mine from college days. They sound like robots since supporting Trump.

@sassygirl3869 that is shallow thinking. You are judging a book by its cover before getting to know them. By your logic millions and millions of vets and current military that overwhelmingly support the right and Donald Trump are bigots, racists, and haters? I can understand that some on the right that will support Trump because he wields power currently and they can push agendas such as Roe vs Wade, however quietly hates the fuckers guts. That's politics. It doesn't make them Trump.

@Darthpug My ex and college friend did not become bigots who want a racist wall until they started being hynotized by Faux News. I know these people -they were once liberals and now are racist Trumpsters. Not judging a book by cover but peope I know and love.

@sassygirl3869 thanks for making my point. You have a total of two instances yet you call everyone that supports Trump bigots, racists, and hate mongers. Your post called out all Trump supporters. Are you now walking back those broadbrush comments or are you continuing to call all Trump supporters racists, bigots, and hate mongers?

2

Not saying yay or nay on this one, but I do admire your optimism. To your points, as listed:

  1. The NRA contributed $30M, much of which from Russian sources (laundering?), but the organization is currently in a civil war, so it's unlikely they'll be able to donate as "bigly" in this next election. Trump couldn't care less about gun rights. As with so many politicians, he'll say whatever he thinks his audience want to hear to get their vote.
  2. As PT Barnum famously stated, "There's a sucker born every minute." And no group is quite as eager to demonstrate this as evangelicals. The fact that Trump isn't an xtian doesn't deter them in the least. He speaks to their fervor and they pay him in adulation. The more his actions and policies suggest to them that he's delivering them ever closer to rapture, the more intense the cycle becomes.
  3. The very name Nazi is derivative of nationalist, not that Trump seems to mind, as he steers the country in a similar directions with so much support from white supremacist groups.
  4. Right to Life is completely bunk. The bulk of those who claim support for it have so problem with state executions, unaffordable healthcare, or low quality of life, and by all appearances favor the rapist over the victim.
  5. The xenophobes operate largely on circular arguments and stoked fear. There are more threats from domestic terrorism and gun deaths that international terror threats, but hey, brown skin's easy to identify and it's just easy to target someone who speaks other languages, while some citizens struggle with the grammar of their native tongue.

As for Trump claiming victory, of course he will, deservingly or otherwise. Where he can't, or thinks he can pull it off - well, there's always Clinton & Obama.
And your "red scare"? Are you at all concerned by his constant capitulation to Putin or the trade war with China that has the US borrowing from China to give money to the farmers to offset their losses from the trade war with China? How about the way he cozies up with leaders of communists and despots, like Erdogan, Kim, and Dutuerte, while distancing us from long-established, stable relationships?

You make it sound like a done deal, but then, that's how a lot of people felt about the last presidential election.

you know of course that I simply making my analysis based on what I think is likely to happen.

4

Yes, you are right, the GOP is pretty simple minded.

  1. The proliferation of Ar-15s is insane
    2)The religious right are simple minded, per definition
  2. We need patriotism not, nationalism
  3. like forcing an 11 year old girl to carry a baby to term, she was raped
  4. This country was built by immigrants not xenophobia

Disagree with almost all your empty rhetoric

cava Level 7 May 17, 2019
3

And saying so makes it true? Oh, wait, you Do follow drumpy......

Jail awaits oblowme the manChild and The Butcher of Bengazi. Tick-tock Comey and Brenner throwing each other under the bus. Tick-tock

@BigTen like I said.........how many Millions of tax money has been spend, and....NOTHING found? So far? (Hint: it's been Years)
You are just plain stupid!

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