There are some believers who will see this pandemic as their god's wrath, and
will become even more devout.
There are others who will have this pandemic be the thing that leads them further away from religion.
Businesses open and close. They are always susceptible to whatever is happening in the world and in their communities.

Everything about this life is a crapshoot.
The only thing that is remotely predictable about ANY of this is that most humans don't learn from history.

Sadly, very sadly, I tend to think that though some sects of religions, world-wide, may die out post -Covid, like the Hydra of myth there will be many, many more 'heads' to rise up again and replace them.
Religions, imho, are like the old Aussie saying about Flies, i.e. " You kill one of them and a hundred others turn up for the funeral."

There may be fewer than we might think since they are eligible for government stimulus loans.
[guidestone.org]

Maybe without their weekly drug dose they will start to see some reason and join the club of the sane.

What effects in the United States?
Not a clue. I would blindly guess a minimal decrease in attendance as this virus kills more older folks. The pews around here are largely filled with silver haired theists. I anticipate many of the older folks will leave a great deal of their money to their church so, even with declining members, I don't foresee a decline in fiscal/power. Younger parishioners are generally not as wealthy as their older counterparts but I don't anticipate this pandemic cleaning house.

I think there are quite a few rural Methodist churches here in Alabama that the conferences are wanting to close. I expect this will mark the last chapter for several of them. I think some that have already "closed" still have annual reunions and maybe Decoration Day to tend the cemetery.

Many will close, however, those that continue to cling to their delusions will return to the basic home gatherings as the early Christians used to do.

I don't think it's just churches that may never come back. There are a lot of social activities people are involved in to pass the time but that aren't super compelling and just getting out of the habit of going may create enough inertia for people not to return -- not to mention ongoing Covid concerns. For example, pre-Covid, I played cards at the senior center every Saturday morning with a half dozen or fewer other old farts but we weren't a close-knit group and I tended to eat too many sweets for my own good. I don't know if I'll bother going back when it reopens, not least because I think that's exactly the worst possible place to go (a room full of vulnerable old people) until there's a vaccine or effective treatment for Covid, or both. My region of upstate NY is in phase 1 reopening and I could see them restarting in a month or two but I don't think I'd go back for a lot longer than that, just based on the risk factor alone.

As for churches specifically, yes some are on life support. We are rare attendees at a unitarian / universalist congregation (they don't like to call themselves a "church" as they are post-Christian in nature) because they accept atheists & agnostics. Their central governing body is recommending their meetings not resume until May of NEXT year. There again, making a not-very-compelling activity downright moribund, although, hopping onto a Zoom virtual meeting is at least easier then dressing up and driving downtown to church. A church like that might figure they'd be ahead to sell all their physical buildings and remain virtual. Most however won't want to do that, and will try to keep going. I think a percentage will fail, similar to the number of businesses that won't be back. Maybe 20% of small rural churches? Wouldn't surprise me.

The situation in the UK is very different from the US. Churches here have been in decline for many years. Whilst as an atheist I cannot help but indulge in a little schadenfreude. On a personal and practical level, it can make me a bit sad.
I have a lovely old lady customer who plays the organ for St Barnabas in Penny Lane. It is where Paul McCartney sang in the choir and where his brother was married. The place was struggling before this crisis and may well not survive. Also, many of the food banks that so many people are now so reliant upon are organized by churches and their volunteers.
We seem to have a much better relationship with our god botherers than you yanks. Whereas your sky pilots lean towards the right, ours tend to lean towards if not the left then the suffering. There was a news item this week about from the Archbishop of Canterbury talking about mental health. Far from proclaiming that Jesus protects all believers. He talked about his own depression and how much we will have to deal with when this thing is over

I hope those one-man and small businesses will refrain. The church or govt didn't come to their rescue while the Vatican holds onto its purse strings and gold vaults. The church however seems to be sitting pretty with govt assistance.

Products of churches have long shelf-life. They don't require much storage space, in spite of cranial limitations of consumers. Even if a church mortgage is foreclosed, inventories are safe. When income shrinks, it's temporary because as Barnum famously said: "There's a sucker born every minute." Demand might even increase in tough times. As much money as Barnum acquired, he never needed more than a collection of tents. Churches only need one tent for collections and they're better off than Barnum with no animals to cage and feed, no barkers, side-show freaks or 'hoochi coochie' girls to house and feed. Churches don't have to keep musicians or other performers employed. One size fits all! A good preacher can out ring master or side-show bark the best in any circus and keep packin' em in!

Church customers are also easier to please. They take their bullshit and swindling straight-up and pay for it near the end of the show; no need for tickets. Hell, they're PART of the show! Sometimes they just send money without even showing up. Any church can reopen in a tent or rented store front. Worrying about how or where 'men of the cloth' are going to propagate is like worrying about where a bovine is going to defecate. Let not thy soul be troubled.

It is erroneously thought that Americans are the largest consumers of energy. Combine what we pay for consuming all the forms of bullshit and sexual fantasy, and energy looks like a curbside lemonade stand. Bullshit and sex, like sand and salt water, are some of the most plentiful things on the face of the earth. You'd think, as plentiful as they are, people would figure out that there's no reason to pay for them. But no, not humans, especially males (the duller of the species) because reason has nothing to do with it. It takes the human animal to turn bullshit and sex, for all of their abundance, into the most expensive and highly prized commodities around.

Churches, prostitution and the pornography industry (I repeat myself) take-in BILLIONS; not counting Madison Avenue, labor and trade unions, insurance companies, political parties, computer model "science" and mainstream "news" media. What are the two most important ingredients for any movie to make money? They can have special effects, 3-D, blazing sound effects; you name it! Without sex and bullshit there's no story. No story = no box office.

When was the last time anyone ever encountered an evangelist, priest, rabbi, imam, pimp or insurance salesman who didn't have a huge story with lots of promises? Churches are the oldest racket; the protection (salvation) racket. Without them setting the example, it wouldn't have occurred to prostitutes to go into competition by actually delivering something a lot closer to Paradise.

Not enough.

As the churches like to say fearfully, before the end will come a great falling away.
Certainly the seeds of doubt will have been sowed in the fertile minds of the young, and will probably bloom and bare the fruit of apostasy (for want of a better word) over the next couple of decades.

The mega churches will thrive. They're evangelicals in Sunbelt areas with well-off, upwardly mobile suburbanites.
These 'churches' are actually mini-conglomerates, and spin out 'franchises' the same way as Burger King or Home Depot.
Not your parents' neighborhood church.

They got a bailout from Congress. So many will survive

Not nearly enough for my preferences.

Some may close for good, but I don’t think COVID will have a lasting overall effect to religious folks.

Well, from talking with my mom, their Baptist church is struggling. And I wonder what something like this virus will do to it. This is a small town in Missouri. Population around 1200. I know most of the folks going were elderly, and while

I am sure there will be a spike of people attending once things calm down. But I am guessing many of those people will avoid going when they feel sick, or there are rumors of someone who normally attends being ill. (And man, word gets around in a small town!) Fears they didn't have before. Before, if you were feeling a little under the weather, you might still go, just tell people to not get too close! Now days people in their 70s and 80s would be seriously offended you were in their church potentially infecting others. Awareness for stuff like that is not going to go away. Never ever.

Young people are juggling to many jobs to attend! My oldest wouldn't attend because he wants to be already sitting in his car, ready to make a brunch delivery as soon as church is over! So he can make some money!!! Too many in the gig economy scraping by to go toss money in the collection plate.

I hope getting used to not going to church during the shut down will make people realize it really is not something they need to do.

I guess it depends how well they invested their shekels some churches own a bit of prime real estate.

Certainly many businesses will go bust. The larger,more efficient will survive. Capitalism at work, but churches ?. They are not really in competition with one another so most will probably carry on as before.

In Australia many churches are receiving a govt payment called 'Jobkeeper' to keep staff going. However, this scheme is due to end in September and churches remain closed. I'm aware of some clergy being retrenched even now. So many are now unemployed and so offertory income is way down for many churches.
In the US, I imagine some churches will have to close due to lack of funds for the same reason.
As for long term effects, it's too early to tell. I'm just not sure what to expect.

I imagine there’ll be a bit of restructuring, but churches on the the whole are doing okay. As the past few decades have passed we’ve seen a steady decline in religiosity but almost all of those are people who rarely or never went to church. The people and families who regularly attended church hasn’t fluctuated all that much.
[pewforum.org]

Based on your "our future" you must be a "church going entity".... you scared?

Nothing will ever drive religion out of business in America or anywhere else. In fact, when the last human being draws his terminal breath he'll be praising God with it.