Overall Harris is the favorite...

@Lizard_of_Ahaz Marginal favourite but it's still very close 5/6 Harris to 11/10 Trump

@273kelvin You do realize casinos are not built by letting people win all the money right?...

@Lizard_of_Ahaz You will notice the disparity between 5/6 and 11/10. That is the bookmaker cut. The market determines the odds. The weight of money on either side is like a seesaw. Bookmakers make their cut no matter who wins.
I find the odds a more accurate predictor than polls.

@273kelvin Yes and they love to make the least likely horse in the race look like the more attractive bet so they make the highest return... So the higher return on your investment (bet) the less likely you are to win...

@Lizard_of_Ahaz Bs. If you can find untrue odds? fill yer boots. Bookies don't need to cheat, they win no matter the outcome.
It is a common fallacy that you are betting against the bookie. When in actual fact you are betting against everyone else who has bet on that race but has made a different selection, rather like a poker game. The mathematic differences in odds are the same as table rakes in poker.

@273kelvin Remember a guy by the name of P. T. Barnum?....

@Lizard_of_Ahaz If the was a flim-flam, you could second guess it and make a fortune. It is far more difficult to beat the percentages. Take a casino for example. The roulette wheel pays out true odds on all numbers but adds a zero (or 2 US) for its cut. From that 1 in 36 (2 in 36 US) they get enough to pay staff, rent, utilities, tax etc, plus a good profit (unless they are D. J. Trump).
There is no need to be crooked. In fact, maintaining a strictly fair book is MORE profitable.

@273kelvin I never said it wasn't fair I said they manipulate people for their own profit.... Just like slot machines do... Casino owners are billionaires and they know making you believe you can win is good for their pockets. Casino payout on a roulette wheel for a single number is 35 to 1 but there are 36 numbers for red and black plus zero for European wheels and both zero and double zero on American ones... so if you choose a single number your actual odds on a European wheel are 36 to 1 against you and in the US 37 to 1...

@Lizard_of_Ahaz Exactly, there is no need to eschew the odds. Bookmakers are called bookmakers because they literally "make book". If 5 people bet $1 on A and 1 person bets $1 on B then the true book is 5 in 6 A and 1 in 6 B. But a bookie will offer 2/13 A and 11/2 B. The difference is their equivalent of zero on the roulette wheel. It is purely the weight of bets that determines the odds. any deviation from that rule can cause them to lose and they hate to lose.
The determination of odds has been greatly democratised by the internet. No longer do bookies quote odds in a vacuum. The amount of how much is bet on a win or loss is now down to fractions of a point and prices are traded like stocks in a market.

@273kelvin I am just pointing out that most people can't understand what the real odds are. and many people in Europe don't see the reality of this election here in the states. Keep in mind that the Morons who were once a Republican only organization as far as the church was concerned and comprises about 2% of thew US population now has the "no kings movement" because they worship the constitution moving their votes to the left. Even if this only brings 1/2 of a percentage of that churches votes to Harris that gives he a 1% pick up in votes from traditionally red and swing states....

@Lizard_of_Ahaz At least here in Europe we can bet on the election, unlike the land of the free.

@273kelvin LMAO betting on Trump these days is even a worse bet than it used to be... His stock dropped again to well under $15 a share hitting yet another new low just like him...

@273kelvin Sorry $14....

@Lizard_of_Ahaz I watched his odds during the 2020 election. He went from 8/13 Dec 2019 to 9/2 August 2020 then 9/4 by November.
My point is that polls are only partially accurate. (The margin of error they talk of is only the sample to count variant, it does not account for those who don't do polls). I prefer to see what real money is saying.