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LINK Is this the end of crypto? | The Economist 11/17/2022

Is this the end of crypto?

The collapse of FTX has dealt a catastrophic blow to crypto’s reputation and aspirations

The fall from grace was hard and fast. Only a fortnight ago Sam Bankman-Fried was in the stratosphere. ftx, his cryptocurrency exchange, then the third-largest, was valued at $32bn; his own wealth was estimated at $16bn. To the gushing venture capitalists (vcs) of Silicon Valley he was the financial genius who could wow investors while playing video games, destined, perhaps, to become the world’s first trillionaire. In Washington he was the acceptable face of crypto, communing with lawmakers and bankrolling efforts to influence its regulation.

Today there is nothing left but 1m furious creditors, dozens of shaky crypto firms and a proliferation of regulatory and criminal probes. The high-speed implosion of ftx has dealt a catastrophic blow to an industry with a history of failure and scandals. Never before has crypto looked so criminal, wasteful and useless.

The more that comes out about the demise of ftx, the more shocking the tale becomes. The exchange’s own terms of service said it would not lend customers’ assets to its trading arm. Yet of $14bn of such assets, it had reportedly lent $8bn-worth to Alameda Research, a trading firm also owned by Mr Bankman-Fried. In turn, it accepted as collateral its own digital tokens, which it had conjured out of thin air. A fatal run on the exchange exposed the gaping hole in its balance-sheet. To cap it all, after ftx declared bankruptcy in America, hundreds of millions of dollars mysteriously flowed out of its accounts.

Big personalities, incestuous loans, overnight collapses—these are the stuff of classic financial manias, from tulip fever in 17th-century Holland to the South Sea Bubble in 18th-century Britain to America’s banking crises in the early 1900s. At its peak last year, the market value of all cryptocurrencies surged to the giddy height of almost $3trn, up from nearly $800bn at the start of 2021. Today it is back at $830bn.

As at the end of any mania, the question now is whether crypto can ever be useful for anything other than scams and speculation. The promise was of a technology that could make financial intermediation faster, cheaper and more efficient. Each new scandal that erupts makes it more likely that genuine innovators will be frightened off and the industry will dwindle. Yet a chance remains, diminishing though it is, that some lasting innovation will one day emerge. As crypto falls to Earth, that slim chance should be kept alive.

Amid the wreckage of the past week, it is worth remembering the technology’s underlying potential. Conventional banking requires a vast infrastructure to maintain trust between strangers. This is expensive and is often captured by insiders who take a cut. Public blockchains, by contrast, are built on a network of computers, making their transactions transparent and, in theory, trustworthy. Interoperable, open-source functions can be built on top of them, including self-executing smart contracts that are guaranteed to function as written. A system of tokens, and rules governing them, can collectively offer a clever way to incentivise open-source contributors. And arrangements that would be expensive or impractical to enforce in the real world become possible—allowing artists to retain a stake in the profits from the resale of their digital works, for instance.

The disappointment is that, 14 years after the Bitcoin blockchain was invented, little of this promise has been realised. Crypto’s frenzy drew in talent from bright graduates to Wall Street professionals, and capital from vc firms, sovereign-wealth and pension funds. Vast quantities of money, time, talent and energy have been used to build what amount to virtual casinos. Efficient, decentralised versions of mainstream financial functions, such as currency exchanges and lending, exist. But many consumers, fearful of losing their money, do not trust them. Instead they are used to speculate on unstable tokens. Money-launderers, sanctions-dodgers and scammers abound.

Presented with all this, a sceptic might say that now is the time to regulate the industry out of existence. But a capitalist society should allow investors to take risks in the knowledge that they will make losses if their bets go sour. Even as crypto has imploded, the spillovers to the wider financial system have been manageable. ftx’s backers included Sequoia, a Californian vc firm; Temasek, a Singaporean sovereign-wealth fund; and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. All have lost money, but none catastrophically.

Moreover, sceptics should acknowledge that nobody can predict which innovations will bear fruit and which will not. People should be free to devote time and money to fusion power, airships, the metaverse and a host of other technologies that may never come good. Crypto is no different. As the virtual economy develops, useful decentralised applications may yet appear—who knows? The underlying technology continues to improve. An upgrade to Ethereum’s blockchain in September radically reduced its energy consumption, paving the way for it to handle high transaction volumes efficiently.

Instead of over-regulating or stamping out crypto, regulators should be guided by two principles. One is to ensure that theft and fraud are minimised, as with any financial activity. The other is to keep the mainstream financial system insulated from further crypto-ructions. Although blockchains were explicitly designed to escape regulation, these principles justify regulating the institutions that act as gatekeepers for the cryptosphere. Requiring exchanges to back customer deposits with liquid assets is an obvious step. A second is disclosure rules that reveal if, say, a gargantuan and dubiously collateralised loan has been made to the exchange’s own trading arm. Stablecoins, which are meant to hold their value in real-world currency, should be regulated as if they were payment instruments at banks.

Tulip bulb or light bulb?
Whether crypto survives, or becomes a financial curiosity like the tulip bulb, will not ultimately depend on regulation. The more scandals ensue, the more the whole enterprise and its aspirations become tainted. The lure of innovation means nothing if investors and users fear their money will disappear into thin air. For crypto to rise again, it must find a valid use that leaves the dodginess behind.

HippieChick58 9 Nov 17
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18 comments

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1

The recent events surrounding FTX have indeed cast a shadow over the crypto industry, raising questions about its stability and reliability. It's reminiscent of financial manias of the past, where big personalities, questionable loans, and overnight collapses were the norm.
Regarding the financial aspects, if you're dealing with cryptocurrencies and need to exchange them, there are platforms that offer a convenient solution for converting Advanced Cash to Skrill, providing flexibility in managing digital assets. While the recent events have certainly shaken confidence in the crypto industry, there's still a slim chance that genuine innovators can drive meaningful advancements.

1

I've been following the ups and downs of the crypto world, and it's truly been a rollercoaster ride, hasn't it? It's fascinating how these technologies can hold so much potential but also lead to such complexity and uncertainty. The collapse of FTX is a stark reminder of the risks involved in this space.
I've heard about Ethereum Code, and while I'm no expert, I believe it's important to tread cautiously and do thorough research before diving into any investment opportunities. The analogy to quantum mechanics is pretty spot-on – there's a mix of excitement and confusion swirling around, making it hard to grasp the full picture.

1

It all depends on how you look at this situation. Actually, this is not the first crisis that blockchain and crypto are going through. Blockchain technology has been created by smart but not fools. So I think there's no reason to believe such assumptions. I'm a trader, and I never stop checking the best crypto trading signals to ensure positive dynamics in BTC growth. Btw, Bitcoin is a great example of cyclicality. It's crashed several times, and it's always managed to get away with it. So, guys, wait, and don't put all your eggs into one basket.

1

It has always been a scam to me from day one it appeared.

2

I expect the block chain technology to survive this. People were wrong to buy crypto as a reserve currency /asset. Bitcoin's value proposition is not that it's a stable reserve currency but that it's decentralized. I don't understand much about it, but crypto currencies will probably be survive and find their own niche uses.

You may be right but that would be sad.

2

Yep, blind hatred is a bitch.

1

Damn blind hatred of what I been through having to deal with Nazis since I was young ,just made me reply to the wrong post lol .. oh well ..

At least I don't support Nazis

0

I know I could be wrong and to stay vigilant, Putin could be just playing a part ,or he is being real .. I like to think he is real but could be wrong... But fuck Nazis!!!!I fucking dealt with them ,they have fucked our nation up !! 200k of them got SSI checks til 2006 ... You stupid fucks don't know this though. You don't know shit about anything!!

0

I was held back two years in kindergarten because of the Nazis that were let into my nation..

Had a teacher in 7th grade , make me take a picture book test ,claimed I couldn't go further and put me in 3rd grade reading!

I was of course put in the" Time out room "

And I fucking stormed out and went to the vice principal and he was rational! Luckily!

I took a real test and was in tenth grade reading not 3rd !!!

Fuck you!!!!!!!

You have no idea!!!!!!!!who you are dealing with,I'm not talking about me!! You got no fucking clue what's been happening!!

2

If Russia set me up to live there and they made marijuana legal , I would do great things for that nation ... They deserve my talent.. at least they appear to more so than what I have witnessed here, have ever seen Putin speak? He way more rational and logical than Obama and all the rest.. he actually fucking cares,he comes from a family that wasn't fucking rich and fuck .. his dad was a factory worker... Fuck you

mm-kay. Bye!

@BufftonBeotch better than the Nazi infested nation i got born into .held back two years in kindergarten,yet was smarter than most my age, said the fever blister next to my eye had nothing to do with the pain in my eye til I went nearly blind in that eye, you have no fucking clue what this world is run by !!!

@laidback1 I am not going to value the opinion of anyone who adores ruthless dictators or claims they were a genius trod upon in youth.

@BufftonBeotch wasn't just me ,there was others like me ... I saw a real Nazi look at me with fear and or hatred,he didn't like me I know that, and I was like 6uo , he told my parents that I needed to be held back two years.. you can not believe me ,but the fact you don't research anything is a bother.. 200k Nazis had recieved SSI checks till around 2006 ,that's fucking proven.. you have no clue

4

Crypto is gypto. Just my opinion but it sums it up nicely.

Criminals liked using it to hide funds. No loss in my mind.

4

I have been expecting something like. It was only a matter of time.

2

It might just simply be a temporary pause until quantum computers become more prevalent.

7

I want to start off by saying, I have resisted Crypto like the plauge. I am a democratic socialist in how I veiw economics. Everything about crypto has screamed fraud and scam since it was intorduced. In a perfect utopian world currencies would not have a value and there would be no need to deal with it ever. However, that is far from the case.

Human beings have an eye for things that glitter as it were. Anything that can give one of us an edge over another is considered valuable, and thus we use it to influence situation to clamber our way to the top of the heap. I am not saying this as (you) or (me) personally, and it is not an attack on an individuals character. Instead it is the onservable and proovable trait of the human race in general. In fact, nearly every single person alive today has some sort of item or money that they value or treasure. Masses of people either are controlled by its influence, or are commanded by those who influence enforcement of their will upon people via use of currencies or promises of some sort of compensation. Most of the worlds 8 billion people fall under some sort of arrangement in which their existence will be highly influenced by a currency of some sort.

Block chain aka crypto currencies are different in the way they operate. The transaction, the records kept, and the security of it. Despite all of this, the crypto currency is virtually worthless. It is literally a value assigned to a token which does not exist in the real world and thus is as real a any deity that has ever existed. However, the US dollar, for example, used to be based in value attached to the price of gold held in reserve. Hince the name "Federal Reserve Note" that was guarenteed by the government to be worth that amount. The Fed took measures to detatch the Dollar from gold and base the currency instead off of market values and credit. This literally means that all the money in the US, for example, is no greater than the value of a piece of crypto currency. It is not based on anything tangible. The Fed prints money and culls money on strategies designed to keep stable the market values but the dollar is literally brought into existence from thin air.

Some nations in Africa have started returning to a gold standard currency because of its stability. Could gold plummet? Sure! Anything can. The whole point is, we place value on objects, minerals, commodities, and labor. If it exist, someone has a price on it somewhere.

In capitalism, we assign value on capital assets. Labor is not usually placed high on the value list to a capitalist because the whole idea is to exploit the labor to maximize your capital gains. If you can get the labor for free( example; self checkout lines in your local walmart or any other business), then that means the company does not need to pay labor to an individual to complete the transactions, thus cutting labor in favor of more capital for the company.

Conversely, in a democratic socialist system, the imphasis is shfited to the worker not the company. Worker coops are used to decide the labor cost and distribution of the capital which is generated. This generally works out better than a CEO down system because the laborers decide how the money is divided and what, where & how the product or commodity is produced. They are not likely to shaft themselves on the labor side of it. Instead they usually opt for better pay and better hour with more than enough to cover the overhead of said business. Block chain in this setup could work in theory. It would have to be made the predominent form of currency with a democratically decided value.

Not likely to see a democratically decided financial setup in todays world economy. Nobody can come to terms with a value that would be as equal in value in say China to Australia through the EU to the US. Block chain unfortunatly cannot provide a stable clear means to economically supply all sectors of the world. Until that day comes, capitalism and the greed that is often supreme in that system will continue to dominate the money markets.

I for one, am glad to see the crypto market crash and burn. I have seen too many people get duped and scammed through this aweful technology. For the same reason I never trusted 401k from employers. They were grossly mislabled as retirement investments. They never were intended for that. They were a way for a man to play the stock market game with a matched investment in may cases by an employer to drive up market participation. These investments were considered low risk and did not provide a lot of growth. However, with the recent volitility in the markets from 2000, 2008, and again with the covid downturn a lot of people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in which they had spent most of their life building, in a single downturn.

In summary, nothing is failsafe or completely idiot proof. However, systematic changes and regulations go a long way for security and stability. Human beings tend to favor things they can touch, feel, and hold in their hands over something left to thin air and the word of someone else whom they may have never even met. Forever shall be the quandary amoungst us all in what is more valueable.

I agree with your take on crypto. There were excellent regulations put in place after the 1929 crash and great depression. Things worked pretty well, there were a few bumps towards the end of the 1960s and 70s but once real deregulation started under Reagan the first real upset was the savings and load mess. Once Clinton repealed the Glass-Steagall Act the final unraveling of the Banking Act of 1933 was complete. Following on the heels of that was the great recession in the mid 2000s and the housing and banking crisis.
We really do need regulation to simiply protect We the People.

Profit Sharing instead of 401K's, tipping, and apprenticeships. All employees of a company, or nation, should be receiving profit sharing from the product. Does USA give us a stipend from National Park profits? How about mineral and water sales? Not only do we not get something but we're giving it all away for free. Imploring criminals to rip us off. Amazingly short-sighted nation of slaves we have.

3

Two of my co-workers have invested over 40K in Crypto. Both of them are in their early 20's (more than half my age), both live at home, and everything is taken care of for them, phone, food, gas, etc. They aren't sweating one bit, in fact both of them are buying more Crypto, in hopes that after the recession, they'll make a killing. And, even if they don't, they are young enough to bounce back.
Can't imagine dropping 40K in Crypto at my age and seeing it all dwindle.

4

Many people with more money than caution, and a few greedy people made crypto possible.

Many people with a need for a creation myth, an untested expanding universe hypothesis, a mathematician, a fear of the Soviet Union's 1961 weapon in orbit, and billions of taxpayer dollars and euros, made the fusion power fantasy possible. And just for fun, add relativity.

5

It would seem to be the end for them, although they did have a good run.
Yeah, I agree. Crypto did appear to me to be a scam too.

7

Crypto always sounded like scam to me..seems I was right..NFTs are the next to explode,and ruin people's lives..

I did not trust Crypto for a New York minute. I have talked to others who have invested in Crypto, I'd like to talk to them now 🙂 see if they still have the enthusiasm.

@HippieChick58 anything that can be financially pulled out of thin air is a pyramid scheme..

@HippieChick58 I have a small amount invested. I'm still buying more as are the others I know personally are still too. There are real world applications and solutions to problems centralized currencies cause. It is the future, even if it scares [older] people, and even if it takes a long time to become ubiquitous.

No method of wealth storage is safe. Runaway inflation and governmental failure can make a country's currency useless. [And it's not like that can't happen here. Especially after the past few years. Tell me how much Confederate money is worth these days.] Stocks can tank or even completely fail. Housing/property can bottom out (2008 anybody?). Someday we may realize that most precious metals and stones are actually pretty meaningless. So a dip or even partial failure isn't a reason for someone to pat themselves on the back and declare they were right because those same things happen in every type of investing. But if you invest responsibly (the way you do with anything else) and only risk what you can afford to lose and diversify between high and low risk, there's no reason one couldn't or shouldn't make it part of their portfolio.

@ChestRockfield I just had a chat about this with my son in law. This SIL is the most intelligent man I've ever met, and I trust him. He said pretty much the same thing you did. However, I am still not going to invest in crypto, for the short time I have left I need something much more steady.

@HippieChick58 I would not suggest anyone who thinks they have a short time left (or who doesn't have income that's not retirement level) to invest in anything high risk, crypto or otherwise.
To be honest, the reason I got in was to get a card that had a 3% cash back bonus, plus it gives me free Netflix, free Spotify Premium, and hopefully soon free Amazon Prime. The bundle I made on SHIB was just gravy and could have easily been a big loss if I hadn't bought so early and sold when I did.

@HippieChick58 Also, thanks for pseudo-saying I'm intelligent. 😝

@ChestRockfield I had never made a judgement about your intelligence, we've really never had much discourse. But your replies to me indicate you've got some smarts, you write clearly and you know about bit coin. I judge you as way smarter than say Lauren Boebert or Teddy Cruz. And you're on this site, so you've got something else going for you. I used to think I was at least average intelligence, and then in one of my jobs they told me I had to dumb down my vocabulary... I didn't last long there.

@HippieChick58 I was kidding anyway. I actually think it's silly to be prideful over intelligence because it's apparent to me that no one does anything to earn it. To me it's no different than being proud of how tall you are, the color of your hair, or the country your ancestors came from. Add to it the fact that being intelligent is so poorly valued and utilized in our society that it's actually often a detrimental quality. I honestly think that whatever level of intelligence I possess has been more of a negative in my life than a positive.
Oh, and everyone is smarter than Boebert... 😝

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