There is a bit of teeth gnashing at Pres. Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia. While it does concern me, I realize that certain threats can only be made head of state to head of state. In order for Europe to get the oil it needs without buying from Russia, the choices are:
- Removing the sanctions on Iran and allowing the free flow of oil by pipeline to Europe.
- Removing the sanctions on Venezuela, allowing oil to be transported to both the US and Europe using the combined refining capacities to increase the impact.
- Convincing the Saudis to increase production filling the European needs.
By threating to do either (both can be accomplished by presidential order), Biden can solve several problems at once.
Iran and Venezuela provide little security threat to the US, however, the same cannot be said about the Saudis. The release of either nations' oil reserves on the world market, will cause a dramatic reduction in the price per barrel of oil, thus reducing Saudi revenue.
Both markets are ready to reenter the world markets and are cash starved. The release of both nations oil reserves would create a huge surplus and might even tax shipping capabilities.
In addition the very real threat to Saudi Arabia presented by an economically reenergized Iran might prove more than the kingdom is prepared to face. Right now they are protected under the nuclear umbrella of Israel, but things can change.
The reduction in oil prices would affect inflation in a downward slope and could force the Saudis to rethink their war export to other arab countries.
The need for additional defense forces would be a boon to the US defense industry.
All the Saudis have to do to avoid a new Iran is to turn the oil spigot back on. That is the threat, that should be conveyed in private, allowing the Saudis to maintain face, will increasing the world oil supply.
That's my take, what's yours?
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.My take is the same as yours Glenn, although you present your case much better than I could. 
Redheadedgammy
Level 9
July 11, 2022
2
The problem with international policy is that it is rather boring, extremely complicated, but boring.
@glennlab Yes I agree, and that is why I am so happy there are so many on this site who understand it and can explain it so well, you being one of those good explainers.
@Redheadedgammy Thank you. (blush)
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