So, the issues I want to highlight here are as follows:
- I'm apoplectic as to the massive ("epic" ) failure that Americans have committed, AND CONTINUE TO COMMIT, on testing this virus.
- From the moment this virus hit, the posture of the President on Testing is that overall he sets a framework of conservative testing decisions, and that he has decided that testing is not to be done as frequently as some experts advocate. This has to change. He is an employee (and an incompetent one at that) and it is a sick twisted situation that he is getting in the way of deploying a cornerstone of the solution with his hanging-on to an illusion of self-importance by setting himself up overly much as the arbiter of what is a good testing policy. I think it could be important to the effort to restart the economy that testing be deployed and used regardless of inevitable Trump administration efforts to get in the way (probably under guise of claiming that they are trying to "help".)
- I'm disgusted by the lip-service we are paying to the bravery and commitment of health care workers, but our failure, as a collective, to take actions which would show we are appreciative (such as changing our tune on testing).
- It is good to see some attempt at organized efforts in the US to overcome the epic failures of the Trump administration, but will those efforts be enough? Is there, in the science of infectious disease spread, a point of no return past which a large percentage of the population is more or less doomed to get the disease. If there is such a point of no return, and if the US passes that point, then are we conceding that millions of Americans are about to die of the disease (not even to mention 1) the poverty and economic downturn the US is risking by making the virus so much worse than it needs to be and 2) the fascist potentially deadly governmental direction the US is headed?)
- At least a few of the other nations are handling the virus vastly better than the US. No, this is NOT just a matter of the Chinese lying about their numbers, nor is it just about other societies being in some ways less freedom-oriented.
- If there is a point of no return from an epidemiology point of view, then is the US in danger of passing this point while other nations do not?
- There are still some very important un-knowns (at least to me), as to the exact aspects of the disease, accuracy of testing, degree of infectiousness of someone who has it or has had it in the past, etc. These factors would impact I guess a calculation as to designing measures to try to control things. They would also I guess impact whether or where the point of no return is.
- I think we in the US will naturally cross certain lines, as emergency measures, such as conceding that any legal right to privacy may have to take a back seat to the government being able to trace who has the disease and with whom they have had contact. However, this does not delete the need to understand how we restore rights when possible, and whether it will be possible to implement dangerous tools such as these when they are in the hands of obvious would-be dictators such as the Trump administration.
- If there is a point of no return from a political point of view, in a move toward rights-violating statism, then to what degree is the US in danger of passing this point? Or has it already passed it? Or is it more a matter of a series of points and the US has only passed a portion of them?
- Why are any of the not-completely-discredited major news organizations still giving so much print and screen time to Trump and his people? As a paying subscriber to the Washington Post and New York Times, I don't have a sense of exactly how they are handling this, but in order to continue to pay for my subscription, I"d like to see a clear policy from them on cordoning off his toxic disinformation and bungling campaigns, such as by presenting the information in a separate well-labeled area so that readers don't have to waste their time reading if they don't want.
My own summary view for the moment is that I personally think it's somewhat naive to allow too much hope that an effort such as described below will stop the spread of the virus in the US. The murderously incompetent Trump administration is simply proving to be too good at hindering a rational response to this pandemic. Still, we have to try, so here is an article which gives some hope if one reads it from one angle. Before the link, I have selected a couple of quotes in particular that I thought were worth mentioning.
"....Instead, a collection of governors, former government officials, disease specialists and nonprofits are pursuing a strategy that relies on the three pillars of disease control: Ramp up testing to identify people who are infected. Find everyone they interact with by deploying contact tracing on a scale America has never attempted before. And focus restrictions more narrowly on the infected and their contacts so the rest of society doesn’t have to stay in permanent lockdown...."
"[...]
Administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations, say the White House has made a deliberate political calculation that it will better serve Trump’s interest to put the onus on governors — rather than the federal government — to figure out how to move ahead.
“It’s mind-boggling, actually, the degree of disorganization,” said Tom Frieden, former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director. The federal government has already squandered February and March, he noted, committing “epic failures” on testing kits, ventilator supply, protective equipment for health workers and contradictory public health communication. The next failure is already on its way, Frieden said, because “we’re not doing the things we need to be doing in April.”...."
[washingtonpost.com]
A plan to defeat coronavirus finally emerges, but it’s not from the White House
In the absence of federal direction, states and America’s top experts forge the path ahead.
4
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11 comments
Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.The virus started in China - some of you are just clueless - do some research before you prove how clueless you are.
gater
Level 7
Apr 14, 2020
0
kmaz:
Hi @gater - you're really helping to illustrate one of the central issues here (as to US citizens and elected officials not really being able to understand, focus on, identify, prioritize and deal with the issues). Such a situation has been decades (if not centuries) in the making and I think if we tried to articulate it to folks outside the US it would be hard to get them to believe it, but I think posts such as yours provide nice quick anecdotal examples of that aspect of things.
Anyway, to answer you more directly: Has anyone disputed you here in this thread that it is likely that the virus started in China? Assuming it did start in China, why do you think that has any strong relevance to this thread (and noting the cited link) which are more about failures at the Federal level in the US response, but also about how the US should now try to deal with the life and death issues facing its citizens. Do you have reason to believe that repeating what we all already assume about the virus origins will be helpful now in saving US lives and righting the ship as to the added problems we here in the US have caused ourselves with our botched response?
In the US we have about 4.2% of the world population, and about 30.6% of reported sarscov2 cases.
The key things to note between the US and China involve not only where diseases may originate but how indivdiuals come together within their nations to try to respond, and do teamwork at local and national levels, and take rational actions, and try to keep their wits about them in an emergency. In the US, hundreds of millions of people have come together to act basically smartly, or what we are advised, but response has been hindered by errors of omission and commission by some at the federal level. For want of anyone else to do the calculation, I preliminarily estimate about 19,000 extra deaths in the US, so far, attributable to our poor response, over and above the numbers that would have died if the US simply had responded in an average way. Oh well. As I said, decades in the making.
PS/Addendum:
Some have complained about my wordiness. In retrospect I think my reluctance to spend additional time editing is not only based on factors such as lack of sufficient time, and some sense of resignation that I'm not sure it's worth it, but also due to trying to illustrate that some problems inherently are not solved by pithy slogans or abbreviated thinking. If part of the problem is US citizens' over-reliance on these things for real thinking then I'm just not erring on the side of shortening up, any more, even if there are cases where it reduces my audience, even if it goes to zero.
kmaz:
Thanks for the response @gater
It's interesting to learn more from the news stories that are coming out about China's coverup. With that said, this thread is more about the US response and, in particular, the attempt within the US to protect our country and our lives and our economy. The net sum has been almost laughably bad though I think a large percent of the population is relatively innocent, and just wants to live their lives, and would have followed more rational and effective procedures if asked. As some have said, it's probably not so much actual incompetence as deliberate negligence - i.e.: Trump and his supporters in the Executive and Legislative branches, and amongst voters, have killed a lot of US citizens and will go down in history as having killed many times more, and have made the US Economy worse than it needed to be.
The only reason I could find to discuss with you was that your "reasoning" is an excellent example of what Americans have descended to. Still, I probably should have just blocked you and that's possibly what I'll do in the next few hours or days. I guess the way that works is that this means this part of the thread will be deleted for both you and me? Not sure. If so, it will be a pity to lose the examples you're giving us, but I think it may be needed to just keep the focus of this and other threads I may start where the focus should be in my view.
Before I do that though, here is my calculation for how many extra US cases and deaths have been caused by Trump and his supporters. Perhaps Trump and some of his supporters see these extra cases and deaths as something they really want to accomplish. For example they may try to distract discussions in unimportant back-alley internet areas and try to blame the Chinese for everything while they knowingly support continuing negligent federal virus response here in the US. If you are one of those people, then you will probably really enjoy seeing these estimates for what may be the first time, even if you may claim to be bothered by the attribution.
So, you're welcome:
Hzve you considered that testing is useless? Because unlike testing for AIDS (you knew you had possibly been exposed), you could get a clean test & get infected 15 minutes later, then be walking around thinking you are "clean" when in fact you are Typhoid Mary (google her-a real person!).
So the test would actually be detrimental to you & everyone you come in contact with! (Asymptomatic for up to 2 weeks, remember)
Practice good hygiene & proper distancing, lay low.
And take out every 3rd word & every 3rd sentence in future writings, please!
AnneWimsey
Level 9
Apr 12, 2020
0
kmaz:
Hi there:
The only thing I can give you here is that you are evidently thinking for yourself, and sticking with your judgment, even when you are disagreeing with the experts. I do think people should think for themselves, up to and including disagreeing with experts.
Does the fact of the disagreement with experts make you wrong? No. It might help you to arrive at a better understanding of things if you actually gave some thought to trying to assess why virtually every expert on earth disagrees with you but in my opinion what makes you wrong, among other things, is that you are portraying the consequences of testing incorrectly, both to yourself and others, and in particular you are ignoring that testing helps the situation if it is done in conjunction with other measures.
Yes, it's true that there is a concern that people will behave recklessly when they have tested negative, but evidently when testing takes place in conjunction with a variety of other advisable practices, such as requirements that negatively tested folks continue to follow all advisable distancing practices, then (from what we are told) it is helpful on more than one front, and does not do the level of harm that you are stating.
I suspect you do have good intentions, as opposed to the one or two other folks I've had to block, but you've wasted enough of my time and hindered my attempt to shout out some basics in the midst of the worst life-and-death emergency of our lifetimes. It is totally demoralizing. Please let your next post on this matter reflect that you have given real actual consideration to the positions of the experts on this matter, and please state what it is about those expert views on testing that you presume to disagree with, or I may unfortunately have to block you. Thanks,
Regarding some of the more dismissive responses:
Normally they would bother me a bit, but in some cases I have to thank some folks for more or less illustrating the central problem here. The widespread lack of ability in the US to recognize even basic measures that should be taken in the face of one of our most difficult moments, .... and the widespread support for the botched measures and omissions advocated by the elected head of state..... stupefying.... but good to have some illustration of this.
kmaz
Level 7
Apr 11, 2020
1
And Trump said to the states it was up to them; not his responsibility. Colorado's Hickenlooper contracts for 500 ventilators and then Trump(FEMA) sneaks in and steals the lot. Then Trump offers Gardner, Hicklooper's opponent 100 of these same ventilators. BREATHTAKING!!!! Literally!!!
racocn8
Level 9
Apr 11, 2020
3
You might have lost a lot of otherwise interested people by the length of your piece.
mischl
Level 8
Apr 11, 2020
4
kmaz:
Yes, you're probably right. Not much way to avoid it. There's just too much left going unsaid (in my view), and too much obstruction when I've tried to post bits and pieces, and too little time for me during the workweek to summarize, and it's not all the time we all face this type of situation together (or that the US so single-handedly makes an effort at one of the biggest Darwin Awards in history), so I took the opportunity to summarize my thoughts, warts and all. Still, one thing I should perhaps have done is (once I found I'd finished and it was too long) make a note at the top that the link and the quotes at the bottom could be a priority for folks who didn't want to read my own views.
I stopped reading after the first couple paragraphs...
@kmaz I noticed that others also said "too many words." You have valid points and people who agree with your point of view. Pardon me for being truthful, but you write very much like I did before I began taking creative writing courses a long time ago. My average sentence length has dropped from somewhere around 20 words to less than half that.
kmaz:
As far as I know, this is the worst natural disaster to befall the US in our lifetimes. The US response, taken as a whole, has been so grotesquely incompetent that dozens of thousands of extra people, if not hundreds of thousands, if not millions, will be dead before we are done. The economy is being harmed in awful ways that needn't have happened, and testing has been a disaster that needn't have happened, even as our malevolent murderously incompetent elected leader poses as someone who cares about the economy, and preens himself as to doling out testing.
In the face of this, I am reading very few other comments here or elsewhere, if any, that discuss any of this. I wrote out my thoughts largely for myself because, evidently, I am living in what is largely an intellectual vacuum. I also enjoyed the hell out of what I read of the article and the quotes, for various reasons including that they mirrored things I've been saying on this board for some time.
There is a saying that goes something like this: I would have written you a shorter set of thoughts, but I did not have time to edit them down. I'm sure you have some good intentions in recommending to me that I engage in more concise writing, and maybe I should go back and edit, but but in this case I just didn't and don't have time or stamina for it. If they don't get read, they don't get read. If you think I have valid points, you are always welcome to explore them in your own posts, say why, and then maybe they will get further. Or, if you've already done so and think they're worth the read, you can post links here if you want, and maybe those ideas will get even more traction.
I am one of the most privacy-conscious folks I know -- people "roll their eyes" when the subject comes-up. I'm not a 'luddite' (20+ years as a software developer), but I choose not to have a smartphone for privacy reasons.
IMO, it is not too unreasonable to relinquish privacy to help a global pandemic. I would want a powerful "sunset provision", and limits on the use of the collected data.
The PBS Newhour :
FearlessFly
Level 9
Apr 11, 2020
2
kmaz:
This information you've posted about Taiwan's relative success in addressing the virus crisis is remarkable, thanks for mentioning it. It forms quite the contrast to what has happened in many countries, particularly the US. There are a few other countries that seem to my eye to have done ok in their battle. I wonder if the US can learn much from them, even if the horse is out of the barn.
This is unlikely to be the last pandemic the world will see, and the least we can do is try to learn from the situation.
This is complete bullshit - the Chinese are to blame for this mess - are you people stupid or something?
gater
Level 7
Apr 11, 2020
1
Based on what? The Chinese said it was our military. The scientists say it's natural, based on the RNA. Who's your source?
@motrubl4u I try to provide source(s) for my comments/arguments. IMO, that's the way this "system" works.
The new normality is upon us!
Get used to it, nothing will ever be as it was the first of 2020 or in all of 2019 and before!!!
Welcome to a world that is not brave, it is stunted for ever more!!!
of-the-mountain
Level 9
Apr 11, 2020
1
These are weird times, with a pandemic and incompetent leadership. 
BestWithoutGods
Level 8
Apr 11, 2020
3
Words, words, let's see...words., more words. This isn't a post, it's a commitment.
Sgt_Spanky
Level 8
Apr 11, 2020
1
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