What Are The Odds?
Just over half of the humans on Earth believe in the Abrahamic God—about 3.7 billion people. These people are confident that God is real and many of them do their best to win favour with him. They believe this is important because their ETERNAL LIFE will depend upon how God judges them.
These believers belong to three main religions; Jews, Christians and Muslims each with very different beliefs. (Jews are less than 0.4% of the total, so I'll ignore them for now.)
Let us imagine God does exist. And let's start by assuming the Christians have got it right—that God sent his son to be sacrificed for our sins and we have to accept Jesus as Lord to be saved.
In this case, there is nothing God can do to help those 1.6 billion Muslims who do not accept Jesus as Lord. These people don't even accept that Jesus was the son of God. Of course, this means they will all spend eternity in Hell.
If we assume the Muslims are right, people will need to follow the teachings of Qur'an to avoid spending eternity in Hell. So all Christians will be duly condemned.
Actually, it's much worse than this. There are two main denominations of Islam and several smaller ones with theological differences that have led to disputes and bloodshed for centuries. It is not at all clear that Heaven will be available to those who have chosen the wrong denomination no matter how good they are as Muslims.
It's even worse for Christians. There are thousands of Christian denominations and many of them differ on exactly how one qualifies for Heaven. In the most optimistic scenario, only a small proportion will make it to Heaven.
Even if you are lucky enough to have chosen the correct denomination, you will still be judged on your faith (and, perhaps, works) and many will be found wanting and be condemned. However you run the numbers, only a small proportion of people will make it to Heaven, the rest will suffer forever.
And, of course, it is possible that Abraham made the whole thing up and his God is fictional. If it is, how can you be sure there is not another God, with his own dreadful Hell waiting for ALL Christians, Muslims and Jews?
The real problem is there is absolutely no way to work out which religion and denomination and behaviour will get you to Heaven. It is a lottery. Your chances of winning are certainly less than 10% and, more likely, a very tiny fraction of that.
So, I do wonder how believers can be so confident that their eternity is assured when the odds are so awful?
~ Bill Flavell
11
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Yes, but god really loves atheists.
Fernapple
Level 9
June 14, 2020
6
Yeah, that's why he created us in the first place.
Wouldn't you get bloody sick and tired of being surround for eternity with millions and millions of Yes men and women?
Geez, surrounded day and night for millenia with people arse-licking and arse-kissing 24/7 I'd be screaming out for someone to have a decent intelligent debate with if I were God.
As I mentioned to a 'Faithfool' who was trying to convert me a few days ago.
Have you ever considered what might happen IF this God of yours decides to chuck a Hissy-Fit because all it ever hears is Yes God, Yes God we love and worship you God and decides to chuck you all into Hell and bring everyone was already there up to Heaven so he can ACTUALLY have a decent conversation/debate for a change?
The shocked and shattered look on her face was really something, I think I may hit a very sensative nerve that time around.
For anyone who knows anything about tbe story of Abraham, that guy would be locked up in a straightjacket in an asylum somewhere under heavy guard this day and age.
If i tried to torture and murder my child and claimed it was a test from god, im incarcerated for life. Abraham? Revered by millions. Gimme a break.
L0v3l1f3
Level 3
June 15, 2020
4
If there was any credible evidence that a God existed I would spend more time thinking about this.
nicknotes
Level 8
June 14, 2020
5
There is more evidence for Thor in every passing thunderstorm than there is for the god of the buy bull.
One small point, Muslims do not believe that hell is for all eternity, only until you are cured or punished enough. Infinite punishment for finite sins is only in the Christian tradition.
Fernapple
Level 9
June 14, 2020
3
Well, that surprised me, so naturally I checked it out.
In the Koran I found two relevant passages both of which rather suggest you may be mistaken:
[Of unbelievers] "They will abide therein: Their penalty will not be lightened, nor will they receive respite" (2:161-162)."
"Their wish will be to get out of the Fire, but never will they get out. Their penalty will be one that endures" (5:36-37)."
Of course, you may have better sources or a different interpretation.
Muslims accept Jesus. He is Isa in Islam
[google.com]
Amisja
Level 8
June 14, 2020
3
They accept him as a prophet but not the son of god or a savior.
"So, I do wonder how believers can be so confident that their eternity is assured when the odds are so awful?"
Because
A) they have been terrified in to it by church, school and parents
B) They are willfully ignorant because of their need to be arrogant and to feel superior to others
C) They are too lazy to question or think about reality and facts
D) all of the above
LenHazell53
Level 9
June 14, 2020
2
Don't forget about the notion from behavioral economics: people generally overestimate their abilities and underestimate their weaknesses. So even if the odds are staked against them, they are willing to bet that they can beat the odds even if others can't. (Same as why people will try to win at a casino)
My answer is D.
@Lorajay I second that 
@TimeOutForMe Yep, I'd go for a most emphatic and DEFINTE 'D" as well.
Hence, imo, is why people are refreed to in the Goatherders Guide to the Galaxy as being sheep since sheep, for the most part as I have witnessed personally over many, many years seldom seem to actually think or consider things for themselves, instead they merely follow along with the rest of mob (herd).
More than half the people in the world think they are smarter than average. That can't be right, but they believe it anyway.
BitFlipper
Level 8
June 14, 2020
2
Welcome to the Dunning-Kruger effect.
They may be right. If the average IQ is 100, it is theoretically possible for more people to be above that number than below it, depending on the depth to which below-average IQ is calculated. Clearly, there's a difference between the average and the mean.
@p-nullifidian ok, you caught me. But I don't think IQ is calculated that way.
@BitFlipper I don't have a clue as to how IQ is calculated either, as I haven't been tested since I was a lad. There are likely a wide range of IQ tests, which may or may not be filled with cultural bias. I was just making a silly point about how AVERAGES are calculated.
People waaaay back determined that there must be something making other things happen - droughts, plagues, weather etc, so someone had to be doing it. Hence the creation of "Gods". If the weather was shocking, appease the gods by (insert idea here) and of course, the weather cleared up, so it must have worked. Hellooooo religion.... Yes, I've often wondered how certain sects KNOW they are right and everyone else is wrong. And what's so great about heaven anyway?If I end up there,and have to obey 'The Lord' and it's all streets paved with gold and all that bollocks, I think I'd rather be in hell with the smokers, drinkers and (dare I say it) fornicators.... Would be a hell of a lot more fun(see what Idid there? LOL) - just sayin'
XSChic
Level 4
June 14, 2020
2
In the beginning before there was Islam, Christianity there was just the Jewish belief system, there was never a promise of an after life at all.
No heaven, no hell, just the grave. If you read the O.T. you'll find the phrases, if you do these things that I command you to do you will have a good life.
Never says anything about an after life. This is what you will in the first five books of Moses, also know as the Torah.
MrDragon
Level 7
June 14, 2020
2
Yeah, I think it was soloman who twice said, “The soul that sinneths, it shall Die.” (Not live for eternity in either heaven or hell).
Perhaps if we just imagine this god doesn’t exist we save ourselves a lot of speculation and general busybodying!
Geoffrey51
Level 8
June 14, 2020
2
Two artists paint a picture of a beautiful and overwhelming natural scene. Which is the correct one?
If you believe that one religion is the only correct religion then you are off course. Belief has nothing to do with it. People who fight over belief and disbelief are wasting time and making enemies.
The most rational response to the overwhelming implications of existence is one of shock and awe, along with appreciation and reverence.
WilliamFleming
Level 8
June 14, 2020
2
It is not important which set of believer you come from. There are many different beliefs. The important and unlikely thing is that all these people believe their god will change his plan just for them and often they pray for him to do just that. It ain't happening.
DenoPenno
Level 9
June 14, 2020
1
About 3.7 billion people are suffering from disastrous cognitive failure. That does not surprise me.
anglophone
Level 9
June 14, 2020
1
In light of overwhelming odds that ones belief is not the true belief and that the dogma and ideas behind that belief are superstitious and fictitious it must be said that people believe what they 'want' to believe. We all can choolse to believe something or not.
JackPedigo
Level 9
June 15, 2020
0
I question your statistics.....India, for just one high-population (a 6th of the world pop.) example, has myriad gods, China & Japan have high populations of which only a tiny percentage are Xian, and etc....
AnneWimsey
Level 9
June 15, 2020
0
Some illogical atheist try to say that the "God" of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob (Israel) is fictional and unfounded. How does evidence like this get over looked?
Nobel Prizes[note 1] have been awarded to over 900 individuals,[1] of whom at least 20% were Jews, although the Jewish population comprises less than 0.2% of the world's population.[2] wikipedia
God later promises the land of Canaan to Abraham, and eventually delivers it to descendants of Abraham, the Israelites.[61] wikipedia
Genesis 12:1 - 3 The LORD had said to Abram, "Go from your country, your people and your father's household to the land I will show you. "I will make you into a great nation, and I will bless you; I will make your name great, and you will be a blessing. I will bless those who bless you, and whoever curses you I will curse; and all peoples on earth will be blessed through you."
The nation of Israel exist.
As to Islam which is considered to come thru Ishmael the first son of Abraham, this is what is written as to what was said by Abraham well over 2000 years ago and has appeared to hold true even to today with everyone opposed to Islam .
Genesis 16:12 He will be a wild donkey of a man; his hand will be against everyone and everyone's hand against him, and he will live in hostility toward all his brothers."
Word
Level 8
June 15, 2020
0
It is spurious to attach religious significance to cultural achievements. Jews make up a disproportional amout of Nobel prizes mostly due to a culture that reveres learning. You might as well draw inferences from a large amount of north African long-distance running champions, east European female field athletic medalists or the success of the US women soccer team. Israel exists because the Jews wanted it and were/are prepared to fight for it.
Is hell mentioned in the bible?
gracielufreebush
Level 4
June 14, 2020
0
Yeah, it was the town dump.
Taking out of context/logical thinking, anyone can destroy a fictional fairytale. When reading little red riding hood, you don't take it literally, you know wolves don't talk. You can logically defer that the story teaches kids not to talk to strangers.
Rich177
Level 5
June 14, 2020
0
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