We still have enough weapons just in Russia and the US to totally fuck up life as we know it. With more players in the field, we have a growing number of more aggressive actors.
Where do you see the most volatile nuclear fires able to erupt? Iran/Iraq/Israel, India/Pakistan, North/South Korea, East Europe, Chinese theater or elsewhere
Nobody ever mentions Saudi Arabia. They paid for the Pakistani nuclear program and are allowed, at anytime, to request and receive nuclear weapons (as per their countries' agreement).
Right now, it appears that South Korea is contemplating removing itself from the American nuclear umbrella and building their own, much would depend on the US reaction.
Don't forget South Africa. They dismantled all their nukes when they ended Apartheid. However, they kept 40 to 60 pounds of nuclear fissionable material which means the hard part to making a bomb is already done. (When I was in the Navy, we got sent photos of what appeared to be a nuclear blast off the coast of SA in 1979. Within 2 days, we were told it wasn't a nuclear blast and, in a break in protocol, we were told to send all photos etc to Washington DC. Normally, we would have simply been told to shred and burn or send the materials back to Pearl Harbor as we were in the Asian theater. The Navy told us that what we saw were phosphorescent fish rising to the surface - I don't know if the Indian Ocean has that many phosphorescent fish. In 1985, the story of that blast was exposed by Time; Israel and South Africa were working together. Of course, i am only speculating that the classified photos i saw were from the blast exposed by Time.)
I believe SA has 220 KG of HEU enough for 6-8 weapons, we had a SAC WX satellite directly overhead when the blast went off, blinded it. Our sieimos confirmed a nudet, the only ship in that area had gone to several ports with no off loads or on loads. We were on alert for 3 days until the U2 sniffers confirmed the type of detonation and possible source of the materials. We had seen the IDF roll out their weapons, but they had never tested one, SA had never tested one but had a large amount of raw material and obvious production facilities. Scary times.
@glennlab About 6 to 8 weapons is what I've seen. We were told the AF sniffers detected nothing. I always felt that the claim of phosphorescent fish was so out there that it was a wink wink.
@Beowulfsfriend The U2s detected something, but it was neither Soviet or Sino and not Indian. They did come up with some off the wall cover stories.
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