The big falcon rocket seems more then up to the task.

And fusions been on the same curve as the rest of Technology it all seems to be following Moore's Law

I've recently seen a very intriguing injector system that has a lot of potential. Besides Fusion isn't really necessary for travel to the asteroid belt. There's water out there that would make a fine propellant.

Not to mention the advancements in Material Sciences. Why the technology doesn't exist for materials that would allow for a space elevator on Earth which would be a silly idea anyways.

There's more than adequate materials available to construct one on the moon or Phobos

I truly do believe it's a lot closer than most people think

As to the time scale. we've undertaken Engineering projects on that scale quite often in human history.

I mean just look at the venues we put together for things like the Olympics

Human life is cheap and we have tons to throw at a project like this.

All you need is to have the chance one in a thousand will get rich and people will flock in droves

But keep in mind I'm talking about the start of the fledgling industry in 50 years not a full-fledged America built in a short span of time

As a side note on fusion reaction...
The large laser array already achieved Fusion.... briefly.
(I suspect it might work better if they tried using the newly invented. two-way polarizing laser)

I think the moon and possibly Phobos, as well as the asteroid belt, is the most likely places were going to start colonizing.

Actually placing a colonization encampment on Mars would kind of defeat the purpose of saving fuel from taking off from that type of gravity, well, the asteroids plus the caverns created by mining would provide radiation protection as well as a smaller gravity well to contend with.

I'm really hoping that the idea of going to Mars as more of a publicity stunt to get To get the public excited about space travel again.

It really would be counter productive to set up a base in that kind of environment, much more practical to put one on Phobos

Thanks,. I wasn't clear I'm estimating 50 years as roughly the start of the process.

I figure that's probably going to be about how long it takes before the first person buys a used rocket from one of these private companies.

It might be arbitrary, but for some reason in my mind, that seems like a significant point in the process.

Hopefully we can avoid some of the nastier pitfalls that are around the corner. ?