Not going to be that long coming.... Trump is trying to open things up too soon and the same thing happened with the Spanish flu if you check the history books.

Outbreaks start slow and pick up speed as they go. If people use common-sense protective measures they are far less likely to be a victim in a pandemic. The people most affected are the ones who stupidly expose themselves and their families to the disease.I actually do know many of the answers to your questions...

Look at how fast the earliest recorded outbreaks of the plague travelled...

@Lizard_of_Ahaz . Yes, the curves show that London was a week behind the USA but Berlin and Paris were in complete sync with us.

@OldGoat43

@Lizard_of_Ahaz . Exactly true, it took about a week to cross back then. I crossed the Atlantic on a troop carrier ship in 1961 and 1964 and it took five days, depending on the season and storms.

@OldGoat43 Factor in the incubation period and you have your explanations.... Outbreaks start slow and pick up speed as they go. If people use common-sense protective measures they are far less likely to be a victim in a pandemic. The people most affected are the ones who stupidly expose themselves and their families to the disease.

@Lizard_of_Ahaz . So according to the curves on the chart: The first outbreak was Berlin, then London, then Paris and then here in the USA. The second outbreaks were spaced differently.

@OldGoat43 Keep in mind that was over 100 years ago and accurate recording of these outbreaks wasn't done properly. And that was before Germany was organized.They were such a ratfuck they were late entering Industrial Age.

No it was not.... Medical knowledge was primitive during the Spanish Flu Pandemic.... At this point in time 22% of closed cases have resulted in death for Covid-19....
So far Covid has killed 2 times the number of people in half the time other outbreaks including the Spanish Flu have....

@Lizard_of_Ahaz You are so far off, it's not even worth arguing.

@BD66 You have such stupid religious beliefs in your right-wing conspiracy bullshit it is pathetic.... As a result you will be one of the ones who suffers most from your own ignorance and arrogance....

@Lizard_of_Ahaz The Spanish Flu killed 50,000,000 people. So far Covid-19 had killed 302,000. If you are too ignorant to even look up simple facts and spout nonsense, there is no reason to have any further discussion with you.

@BD66 You are comparing two different time frames (3 years for Flu vs. 3 months for covid). It could turn out after three years covid kills 100 million, right?

@AtheistInNC No, the fatality rate for the Spanish Flu was estimated at 7%. 40% of the Earth's population contracted it, so it killed approximately 2.8% of the people on this earth. The fatality rate for Covid-19 appears to be approximately 0.65%, that's still 5 -7 times more deadly than the typical seasonal flu, but even if 60% of the Earth's population comes down with Covid-19, you will get 60% cases * 0.65% deaths per case = .39% of the Earth's population. It's nowhere near the death toll of the Spanish flu (2.8% of the Earth's population)

@BD66 The Spanish Flu in the US using the most reliable figure claimed 675,000 lives in the US over the course of nearly a year. Using the world wide fatality rate of 1 in 10 that means about 6,750,000 became infected. Covid-19 has been active in the US for less than 4 months and with things opening back up and stupid people going back into bars and restaurants without masks is promising us the same conditions that gave us the second wave of Spanish flu. Right now we have had 1,455,000+ case in the US and the present rate of death to recovery has been 22% which has dropped from the previous rate of 32% only because hospitals are no longer being flooded with new patients as badly as before. Idiots like you will overwhelm an already strained to the limit healthcare system that is completely out of supplies because Trump blocked them from being manufactured or purchased. These are documented facts. Using the same charting used for the Spanish Flu the second wave will be a complete disaster for this country and should peak with no less than 20,000,000 cases (That figure is very conservative I would say closer to 50 or 70 million...) With a drastic increase in the death rate because the health care system now can barely handle what is already here. We cou8ld well reach a death rate of 40% of those infected. Also it has been shown that many people who have been infected and recovered later become reinfected and die.

@BD66 If the death rate manages to drop another 7% which I find extremely unlikely just the cases already confirmed will leave this country with over 218,000 dead...
Then of course we have the dead who followed "Dr Trump's" medical advice... The people in Arizona who took aquarium dechlorination tablets as well as those ingestion or injecting chlorine bleach...
[fox32chicago.com]

@Lizard_of_Ahaz Your death rate (40%) is off by 2 orders of magnitude. One in 5 New Yorkers have tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies. That means out of every 1,000,000 New Yorkers, 200,000 had Covid-19 in their bodies at some time. Most people didn't even know they had it. Out of every 1,000,000 New Yorkers, 18,151 were formally diagnosed with Covid-19, and 1,410 died of Covid-19. If you compare the number who died to the number who tested positive for antibodies, you get 1,410/200,000 = 0.705%. That's ten times lower than the estimated death rate for people who contracted Spanish Flu 7%, and right in line with the death rates for people who contracted the flu in 1958 and 1968. Here is the data for New York, read it for yourself:

[nytimes.com]

[worldometers.info]

@BD66 Maybe you should learn to read?... The death rate now for closed cases is slightly over 20% and I am hopeful that if quarantine remains in affect could drop as low as 15%.. However if we get the second wave (and we will when everything is reopened) the death to recovery rate will jump and could go as high as 40% because of the present system having a complete inability to handle all those new cases without enough staff or medical supplies.
Please if you insist go out and become one of those who will become infected and please feel free to have your next of kin post your obituary here we can use a good laugh... Might I suggest they add to is "Dead from terminal stupidity from the Corona Virus... He won his Darwin..."

@BD66 Seems you failed math.... You also failed basic computer history. The GIGO law is where your math deviates from reality. When your figures are garbage the result is garbage...

@Lizard_of_Ahaz OK Lizard One last time.

200,000 were exposed to Covid-19
18,151 tested postive for Covid-19.
1,410 died from Covid-19

That means:

181,849 were exposed but fought off the disease and never went in for testing or treatment.
16,741 tested positive, but have not died from Covid-19.
1,410 died from Covid-19.

Now let's look at the extreme case where 60% of the population of the USA gets exposed and we obtain herd immunity. 60% of the USA is 333,333,333 * .6 = 200,000,000

Of the 200,000 people/million in New York that were exposed to the virus and tested positive for antibodies, when we reach herd immunity in the USA, that will be 200,000,000 people who are exposed and test positive for antibodies. So we just multiply those numbers by 1000.

Now if the federal government, state governments, local governments, and all the people in the USA completely fail to stop this disease to the point where we get herd immunity, we're looking at:

181,849,000 exposed but fought off the disease and never went in for testing or treatment.
16,741,000 tested positive, but have not died from Covid-19.
1,410,000 who die from Covid-19.

The 1,410,000 who would die would represent .423% of the US population.
The Spanish Flu killed 2.8% of the world's population, and that world population didn't have nearly as many old people in it in 1918 as we have today in the US Population.

@BD66
Spanish flu death rate.... Though in India it went to 5%...
"An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high as 100 million (7)."
[ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

@BD66 As for the rest I remind you that you can never arrive at an accurate statistic using flawed data. If the number of dead is over 20% of the closed cases the death rate is over 20% you can't use the total number of infected to arrive at a reasonably accurate number. We are already starting to see an upsurge in new cases because of the congenital idiots who went out to protests without a mask. Now that Wisconsin is reopening that upsurge will increase because people are now in public venues without masks or distancing because a stacked court made a stupid ruling. I believe the number of new cases there after the protests went from around 350 a day to over 1600 a day now....

@BD66 You are counting deaths against total number of cases.... Your math is flawed.

@Lizard_of_Ahaz I can assure you, my math is not flawed. For the Spanish Flu: (1918:

World's Population: 1,800,000,000
Estimated Number of people infected: ~600,000,000
Estimated Number of deaths: ~50,000,000

Estimated Percentage Who Died Who Became Infected: 8.33%

For New York 2020:

Pupulation 20,000,000
Estimated Number of people infected: 4,000,000
Number of people who have been diagnosed as infected: 353,096
Number of people who have died: 27,426

Estimated Percentage Who Died Who Became infected: 27,426/4,000,000 = 0.68%

Estimated Percentage Who Die of Seasonal Flu who become infected = 0.1%

Estimated Percentage of people who died when they became infected with the 1958 and 1968 Asian Flus: 0.4% to 0.7%

Covid-19 is about 5 to 10 times more deadly than a typical seasonal flu.
Covid-19 is about as deadly as the flu strains that caused the epidemics of 1958 and 1968.
Covid-19 is about 10 times less deadly than the Spanish Flu.

@BD66 Wrong.... out of a little over 85,000 closed cases over 27,000 have died. The rest of those cases haven't been cured and a high percentage will likely die.... Once again you are applying the GIGO law which results in a garbage answer.... You are indulging in religious thinking....

@Lizard_of_Ahaz No, Let's focus on New York:

Pupulation 20,000,000
Estimated Number of people infected: 4,000,000
Number of people who have been diagnosed as infected: 353,096
Number of people who have died: 27,426

More than 91% of the people who get infected aren't even formally diagnosed because their illness is so mild many don't even know they had Covid-19.
Of those who are diagnosed approximately 1/4 are hospitalized.
Of those who are hospitalized, approximately 3/10 die.

So for every 1000 New Yorkers:
800 Have never come in contact with Covid-19.
200 have come in contact with Covid -19.

Of those 200 who have come in contact:
182 are never diagnosed as having Covid-19 because their symptoms were so mild.
That leaves 18 who get diagnosed.

Of those 18 who get diagnosed:
13.5 are told to go home and stay there for 2 weeks to avoid infecting others.
4.5 are put in the hospital.

Of those 4.5 who get put in the hospital.
1.5 die.

So for the 1000 New Yorkers:
800 Not infected
182 infected but never diagnosed
13.5 diagnosed, and told to go home for 2 week quarantine.
3 hospitalized and recover
1.5 hospitalized and die.

Of the 200 who get infected 1.5 die. That's 0.75%

@BD66 Unless you can provide a source for these figures and can prove they are correct your figures are fiction not fact.... If you are getting your "information" from 'infowars' it is complete bullshit...

@Lizard_of_Ahaz I provided the source data in my very first post

[nytimes.com]

[worldometers.info]

[www1.nyc.gov]

@BD66 NYT is inaccurate. As for the rest you are fictionalizing real data....
Deaths in New York are 1.41% of the entire population of the state so far....

@Lizard_of_Ahaz The gap in IQ points is too large for us to have a productive discussion.

I placed 19th in the United States in the National Mathematical Olympiad, and you can't divide.

My time would be better spent trying to teach differential equations to a chimpanzee. I can discuss this topic with intelligent people who are extremely liberal, and intelligent people who are extremely conservative, and we quickly agree on the numbers, but we may differ on how the states and federal government should respond.

The population of New York: ~19,400,000
Covid-19 deaths in New York: 27,426
Deaths as a percentage of the population: 0.141%

You are off by a factor of 10 again.
That's better than before, you were off by a factor of 70 for the fatality rates.

Those who ignore it entirely don't fair any better...

I have noticed and am looking forward to them disappearing soon.... Darwin works in not very mysterious ways...